© 2017

Leading from Under the Sword of Damocles

A Business Leader’s Practical Guide to Using Predictive Emulation to Manage Risk and Maintain Profitability


Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xvi
  2. Using Predictive Emulation to Expose and Control Risk

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 1-1
    2. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 3-6
    3. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 7-13
    4. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 15-20
    5. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 21-26
    6. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 27-32
    7. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 33-49
    8. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 57-61
    9. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 63-70
    10. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 77-81
    11. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 93-103
    12. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 105-122
    13. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 123-129
    14. Nabil Abu el Ata, Annie Drucbert
      Pages 131-159
  3. Making Decisions Using X-Act OBC Platform Metrics: Example Cases

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 169-169

About this book


Globalization trends and the rapid pace of technological innovations have introduced unprecedented change and uncertainty. For unprepared businesses, the drivers of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will become a constant source of surprise and crises will unfold at an ever-increasing rate. To thrive under these conditions, companies must adopt new risk management technologies and practices that enable business leaders to better anticipate and adjust to changing dynamics.

This book helps readers understand how algorithm-based predictive and prescriptive analytics principles can be used to control risk in today’s dynamic business environment. It serves as a reference guide for business leaders and risk management practitioners of companies that are global in reach or operate dynamically complex systems. Using the technological and scientific innovations presented in this book, business leaders can gain a wider understanding of risk and prescriptively determine which actions are necessary to ensure the business is optimally positioned to meet its stated long-term goals and objectives.

Case studies show how the presented methods can be practically applied to preemptively expose risks and support decisions to optimize, transform or disrupt current business models, strategies, organizational structure and information systems when necessary to maintain a market position or outperform competitors.

These methods have been proven through hundreds of client cases. By using mathematical emulation to link business risks to strategic imperatives, it becomes possible to achieve a higher annual profit margin and better growth. As we enter the Fourth Industrial Revolution, companies that are able to expose risks caused by dynamic complexity and maintain the alignment between the goals of the business and operational execution will be better prepared to make the shifts necessary for long-term success and keep the business moving toward its goals.



Risk Management management practices causal deconstruction perturbation theory dynamic patterns optimal business control model-based architecture big data Dycom Risk Index Engineering Efficiency Aging Acceleration Fourth Industrial Revolution Industrie 4.0

Authors and affiliations

  1. 1.URM GroupOmahaUSA
  2. 2.URM Group, EuropeCannesFrance

About the authors

Dr. Nabil Abu el Ata is the co-founder of URM Group, and has invested over 20 years in
maturing the science of risk management and the practical application of technologies to
predictively expose and prescriptively treat operational risks caused by dynamic complexity.
With over 15 patents and decades of experience providing consultative services to some of the world’s largest and most complex organizations, he offers a breadth of analytical skills, risk
management and business intelligence expertise, as well as IT and business process management knowledge. 

Annie Drucbert is a co-founder of URM Group and a recognized authority in the predictive and prescriptive analysis of economic, financial and enterprise systems. Mrs. Drucbert’s specialties include modeling, emulation and performance management of complex database and corporate systems. Mrs. Drucbert holds 3 US patents and has delivered strategic, tactical and operational services using X-Act OBC Platform for several global clients.

Bibliographic information

Industry Sectors
Chemical Manufacturing
IT & Software
Consumer Packaged Goods
Finance, Business & Banking