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Economic Structural Change

Analysis and Forecasting

  • Peter Hackl
  • Anders Holger Westlund

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-x
  2. Introduction

    1. Peter Hackl, Anders H. Westlund
      Pages 1-9
  3. Identification of Structural Change

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 11-11
    2. Walter Krämer, Werner Ploberger, Irene Schlüter
      Pages 35-47
    3. Bernd Schips, Yngve Abrahamsen
      Pages 59-75
    4. Lyle D. Broemeling, Peyton J. Cook, Juanita H. Chin Choy
      Pages 77-84
  4. Model Building in the Presence of Structural Change

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 121-121
    2. Maozu Lu, Grayham E. Mizon
      Pages 123-138
    3. Clive W. J. Granger, Hahn S. Lee
      Pages 139-157
    4. Andrew C. Harvey, Mariane Streibel
      Pages 169-178
    5. Peter M. Robinson
      Pages 179-190
  5. Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Change

  6. Back Matter
    Pages 371-385

About these proceedings

Introduction

Structural change is a fundamental concept in economic model building. Statistics and econometrics provide the tools for identification of change, for estimating the onset of a change, for assessing its extent and relevance. Statistics and econometrics also have de­ veloped models that are suitable for picturing the data-generating process in the presence of structural change by assimilating the changes or due to the robustness to its presence. Important subjects in this context are forecasting methods. The need for such methods became obvious when, as a consequence of the oil price shock, the results of empirical analyses suddenly seemed to be much less reliable than before. Nowadays, economists agree that models with fixed structure that picture reality over longer periods are illusions. An example for less dramatic causes than the oil price shock with similarly profound effects is economic growth and its impacts on the economic system. Indeed, economic growth was a motivating concept for this volume. In 1983, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxen­ burg/ Austria initiated an ambitious project on "Economic Growth and Structural Change".

Keywords

Statistik Statistische Analyse Strukturwandel Wachstum calculus econometrics equilibrium forecasting inequality integration modeling poverty regression statistical analysis statistics

Editors and affiliations

  • Peter Hackl
    • 1
  • Anders Holger Westlund
    • 2
  1. 1.Institut für StatistikWirtschaftsuniversität WienWienAustria
  2. 2.Stockholm School of EconomicsStockholmSwitzerland

Bibliographic information

  • DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-06824-3
  • Copyright Information Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1991
  • Publisher Name Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
  • eBook Packages Springer Book Archive
  • Print ISBN 978-3-662-06826-7
  • Online ISBN 978-3-662-06824-3
  • Buy this book on publisher's site
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