European Monetary Union

Transition, International Impact and Policy Options

  • Paul J. J. Welfens
Conference proceedings

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages I-X
  2. Introduction

    1. Paul J. J. Welfens
      Pages 1-10
  3. Transition and Long Interest Rates in Germany

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 11-11
    2. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
      Pages 13-70
    3. Paul Bergin, Mathias Moersch
      Pages 71-130
  4. Financial Markets and Monetary Policy

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 131-131
    2. Maria Demertzis, Andrew Hughes Hallett, Ole Rummel
      Pages 161-234
  5. Fiscal Aspects of the Maastricht Treaty and Political Economy of Transition

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 269-269
    2. Daniel Gros
      Pages 271-295
    3. Paul J. J. Welfens, André Jungmittag
      Pages 331-399
  6. Necessary Amendments for a Functional EMU

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 401-401
    2. Stefan Collignon
      Pages 403-414
    3. Robert Raymond
      Pages 415-417
  7. European Monetary Union from a German Perspective

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 427-427
    2. Heinrich Matthes
      Pages 433-438
    3. Jürgen Pfister
      Pages 439-441
  8. Back Matter
    Pages 449-469

About these proceedings


Paul J. J. Welfens European monetary union has been discussed for more than three decades and is likely to be realized in 1999. One may anticipate generous interpretations of the fiscal convergence criteria. Such generosity consistent with the Maastricht Treaty might impair the credibility of the ECB and the stability of the Euro, respectively, despite the fact that inflation is a monetary phenomenon and has little to do with government deficits, unless they were financed via the printing press, which is excluded in the Maastricht Treaty. The European Commission's forecast of spring 1997 suggests that Italy will have problems in joining the EMU starter group as the is expected to be 3. 2% in 1997 and even 3. 9% in 1998. A Italian deficitlGDP ratio fully developed EMU group (with all 15 cowltries included) would represent 38% of the OECD GDP, slightly higher than the U. S. with 33% (Japan 21%). The exports/GDP ratio of EU countries is 30%, the ratio with respect to exports outside the EU would be 10% (Japan, U. S. 8%). The share of the U. S. dollar in international currency reserves fell from 67% to 40% in 1995, while the share of European currencies increased from 13% to 37%. Prior to the EMU, market participants have to anticipate whether a transition to 1999 will bring windfall losses or gains in various bond markets.


Auenwirtschaft Euro European Union (EU) Europäische Integration Finanzmärkte Geldpolitik Währungsunion european integration financial markets international economics monetary policy monetary union political economy

Editors and affiliations

  • Paul J. J. Welfens
    • 1
  1. 1.European Institute for International Economic RelationsUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany

Bibliographic information

  • DOI
  • Copyright Information Springer-Verlag Berlin · Heidelberg 1997
  • Publisher Name Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
  • eBook Packages Springer Book Archive
  • Print ISBN 978-3-642-63827-5
  • Online ISBN 978-3-642-59039-9
  • Buy this book on publisher's site
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