Business Cycles in BRICS

  • Sergey Smirnov
  • Ataman Ozyildirim
  • Paulo Picchetti

Part of the Societies and Political Orders in Transition book series (SOCPOT)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xi
  2. Sergey Smirnov, Ataman Ozyildirim, Paulo Picchetti
    Pages 1-6
  3. The Global Economy and BRICS

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 7-7
    2. Sergey V. Smirnov, Daria A. Avdeeva
      Pages 9-28
    3. Andrei Akhremenko, Alexander Petrov, Egor Yureskul
      Pages 29-54
  4. History and Driving Forces of Economic Cycles in BRICS

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 67-67
    2. Leonardo Weller
      Pages 69-87
    3. Sergey V. Smirnov
      Pages 89-119
    4. Radhika Pandey, Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah
      Pages 121-152
    5. Tiejun Wen, Kin Chi Lau, Erebus Wong, Tsui Sit
      Pages 153-174
    6. Junli Zhao, Degang Jia, Wei Chang
      Pages 175-184
  5. Business Tendency Surveys (BTSs) in BRICS

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 213-213
    2. Aloisio Campelo Jr
      Pages 215-218
    3. Tamara Lipkind, Liudmila Kitrar, Georgy Ostapkovich
      Pages 233-251
    4. George Kershoff
      Pages 253-264
    5. Miao Chen, Jiancheng Pan
      Pages 265-277
  6. Composite Cyclical Indicators for Real-Time Monitoring and Forecasting the BRICS Economies

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 301-301
    2. Aloisio Campelo Jr, Ataman Ozyildirim, Jing Sima-Friedman, Paulo Picchetti, Sarah Piassi Machado Lima
      Pages 315-329
    3. Sergey V. Smirnov
      Pages 347-361
    4. Sergey V. Smirnov, Nikolay V. Kondrashov
      Pages 363-375
    5. Atish Kumar Dash, Ataman Ozyildirim, Jing Sima-Friedman
      Pages 377-392
    6. Yuhong Liu
      Pages 393-403
    7. Willem H. Boshoff, Laurie H. Binge
      Pages 447-464
    8. P. Laubscher
      Pages 465-495
  7. Concluding Remarks

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 497-497
    2. Sergey V. Smirnov, Ataman Ozyildirim, George Kershoff
      Pages 499-513

About this book


This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.


BRICS Business cycles Emerging economies Recessions Business tendency surveys BTS Cyclical indicators Forecasting

Editors and affiliations

  • Sergey Smirnov
    • 1
  • Ataman Ozyildirim
    • 2
  • Paulo Picchetti
    • 3
  1. 1.Higher School of EconomicsNational Research UniversityMoscowRussia
  2. 2.The Conference Board Inc.New YorkUSA
  3. 3.Fundação Getulio Vargas, Brazil/IBRE/São Paulo School of EconomicsSão PauloBrazil

Bibliographic information

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