© 2018

Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2 °C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development

  • George Giannakidis
  • Kenneth Karlsson
  • Maryse Labriet
  • Brian Ó Gallachóir

Part of the Lecture Notes in Energy book series (LNEN, volume 64)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xi
  2. Maryse Labriet, George Giannakidis, Kenneth Karlsson, Brian Ó Gallachóir
    Pages 1-13
  3. The Radical Transformation of the Global Energy System

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 15-15
    2. Antti Lehtilä, Tiina Koljonen
      Pages 33-49
    3. Matthew Winning, Steve Pye, James Glynn, Daniel Scamman, Daniel Welsby
      Pages 51-65
    4. Kenneth Karlsson, Jørgen Nørgård, Juan Gea Bermúdez, Olexandr Balyk, Mathis Wackernagel, James Glynn et al.
      Pages 85-102
  4. The Diversity of the National Energy Transitions in Europe

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 103-103
    2. Pernille Seljom, Eva Rosenberg
      Pages 105-121
    3. Jacopo Tattini, Eamonn Mulholland, Giada Venturini, Mohammad Ahanchian, Maurizio Gargiulo, Olexandr Balyk et al.
      Pages 137-153
    4. Ariane Millot, Rémy Doudard, Thomas Le Gallic, François Briens, Edi Assoumou, Nadia Maïzi
      Pages 173-190
    5. Xiufeng Yue, Fionn Rogan, James Glynn, Brian Ó Gallachóir
      Pages 191-205
    6. Júlia Seixas, Sofia G. Simoes, Patrícia Fortes, João Pedro Gouveia
      Pages 207-223
  5. The Decarbonisation Pathways Outside Europe

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 225-225
    2. Luke J. Reedman, Amit Kanudia, Paul W. Graham, Jing Qiu, Thomas S. Brinsmead, Dongxiao Wang et al.
      Pages 261-276

About this book


This book presents the energy system roadmaps necessary to limit global temperature increase to below 2°C, in order to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change. It provides a unique perspective on and critical understanding of the feasibility of a well-below-2°C world by exploring energy system pathways, technology innovations, behaviour change and the macro-economic impacts of achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century. The transformative changes in the energy transition are explored using energy systems models and scenario analyses that are applied to various cities, countries and at a global scale to offer scientific evidence to underpin complex policy decisions relating to climate change mitigation and interrelated issues like energy security and the energy–water nexus. It includes several chapters directly related to the Nationally Determined Contributions proposed in the context of the recent Paris Agreement on Climate Change.


In summary, the book collates a range of concrete analyses at different scales from around the globe, revisiting the roles of countries, cities and local communities in pathways to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make a well-below-2°C world a reality.

A valuable source of information for energy modellers in both the industry and public sectors, it provides a critical understanding of both the feasibility of roadmaps to achieve a well-below-2°C world, and the diversity and wide applications of energy systems models. Encompassing behaviour changes; technology innovations; macro-economic impacts; and other environmental challenges, such as water, it is also of interest to energy economists and engineers, as well as economic modellers working in the field of climate change mitigation.


Energy Systems Model Renewable Energy Technology Greenhouse Gas Emissions Climate Change Innovation Global temperature increase roadmap to climate change mitigation below 2 degree climate roadmap limiting warming to below 2 degrees temperature rise below 2 degrees prevent 2 degrees of global warming well below 2 degree world

Editors and affiliations

  • George Giannakidis
    • 1
  • Kenneth Karlsson
    • 2
  • Maryse Labriet
    • 3
  • Brian Ó Gallachóir
    • 4
  1. 1.Laboratory for Energy Systems AnalysisCentre for Renewable Energy Sources and Saving (CRES)AthensGreece
  2. 2.DTU Management EngineeringTechnical University of DenmarkKgs. LyngbyDenmark
  3. 3.Eneris Environment Energy ConsultantsMadridSpain
  4. 4.MaREI Centre, Environmental Research InstituteUniversity College CorkCorkIreland

About the editors

The authors are part of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP), one of the IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes (TCPs) that underpin the efforts of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to support innovation for energy security, economic growth and environmental protection.

 The IEA-ETSAP-TCP  is a unique network of energy modelling teams from approx. 70 countries that has operated for over 40 years. The network members cooperates to establish, maintain, develop and expand a consistent multi-country energy / economy / environment / engineering (4E) analytical capability, mainly based on the MARKAL/TIMES family of models. These bottom-up techno-economic models have been used to build and compare long term energy pathways and to provide in-depth national, multi-country, and global energy and environmental analyses.

 George Giannakidis worked as a senior consultant in the Centre for Renewable Energy Sources and Saving in Greece over the past twenty years. His scientific interests include energy systems analysis, energy economics and energy policy. He is particularly interested in the evaluation of the required energy policies to deliver large scale penetration of renewable energies. He has participated as a project partner and coordinator in a number of EU funded projects on energy planning and on the penetration of renewable energy sources into the energy system. He has also participated in the formulation of the Greek National Action Plans for energy efficiency, cogeneration of heat and power, and renewable energy sources. He was formerly the Operating Agent of IEA-ETSAP for five years and is currently the Project Head of IEA-ETSAP.


Kenneth Karlsson is leading the Energy System Analysis group at DTU Management Engineering at DTU Denmark. His research focus is on modelling of energy systems and the links to environment, economy and resources. He is involved in developing energy system optimization models on national, regional and global scales with a focus on high shares of renewable energy. He has been involved as an expert in most Danish commissions analysing the future energy system and was recently in charge of developing a new TIMES model for the Danish Energy Agency. Kenneth is currently the Operating Agent IEA-ETSAP and is one of the initiative takers behind the new Energy Modelling Platform Europe, EMP-E.

Maryse Labriet is director of Eneris Environment Energy Consultants, Spain, and faculty lecturer on climate change, energy and development at the EOI-Business School of Madrid. She is one of the co-developers of the World TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM) made available within IEA-ETSAP, which she has used to assess global energy, technology and climate outlooks in international projects and modeling exercises such as the Energy Modeling Forum. Working at the intersection of research and consulting, her interests focus on advancing and sharing knowledge on low carbon and climate resilient energy policies, assessing energy systems and supporting decision-makers in the implementation and monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goal on energy.

Brian Ó Gallachóir is Professor of Energy Engineering in University College Cork, Ireland. He is also Vice-Director of UCC’s Environmental Research Institute and Director of the SFI MaREI Centre, an energy and marine-based research, development and innovation hub based in Ireland. Brian is the elected Chair of the Executive Committee for IEA-ETSAP. His research focus is on building and using integrated energy systems models to inform energy and climate change mitigation policy. He is a member of Ireland’s Gas Innovation Group and of Energy Cork, an industry-driven cluster pursuing coordinated actions to strengthen enterprise and employment within the energy sector in the Cork region.

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