The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement

  • Luis C. Dias
  • Alec Morton
  • John Quigley

Part of the International Series in Operations Research & Management Science book series (ISOR, volume 261)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-viii
  2. Luis C. Dias, Alec Morton, John Quigley
    Pages 1-14
  3. John Quigley, Abigail Colson, Willy Aspinall, Roger M. Cooke
    Pages 15-36
  4. Roger M. Cooke
    Pages 37-59
  5. John Paul Gosling
    Pages 61-93
  6. Anca M. Hanea, Mark Burgman, Victoria Hemming
    Pages 95-117
  7. David Hartley, Simon French
    Pages 119-140
  8. Kevin J. Wilson, Malcolm Farrow
    Pages 211-240
  9. Jorge González-Ortega, Vesela Radovic, David Ríos Insua
    Pages 241-264
  10. Robert F. Bordley
    Pages 265-286
  11. Alec Morton
    Pages 287-311
  12. Nikolaos F. Matsatsinis, Evangelos Grigoroudis, Eleftherios Siskos
    Pages 313-348
  13. Luis C. Dias, Vincent Mousseau
    Pages 349-375
  14. Gilberto Montibeller, Detlof von Winterfeldt
    Pages 377-392
  15. Martine J. Barons, Sophia K. Wright, Jim Q. Smith
    Pages 445-478
  16. Marta O. Soares, Laura Bojke
    Pages 479-494
  17. Jason R. W. Merrick, Laura A. Albert
    Pages 495-509
  18. Markus Porthin, Tony Rosqvist, Susanna Kunttu
    Pages 511-527
  19. Pavlos Delias, Evangelos Grigoroudis, Nikolaos F. Matsatsinis
    Pages 529-542

About this book


This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments.

Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts.

Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE).  Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts.

Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.


Preference Elicitation Expert Judgment Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Decision Analysis Cooke Method Sheffield Method Subjective Probability Utility Elicitation Value Elicitation Decision Conferencing Uncertainty

Editors and affiliations

  • Luis C. Dias
    • 1
  • Alec Morton
    • 2
  • John Quigley
    • 3
  1. 1.Faculty of Economics, CeBER and INESC CoimbraUniversity of CoimbraCoimbraPortugal
  2. 2.Department of Management ScienceUniversity of StrathclydeScotlandUnited Kingdom
  3. 3.Department of Management ScienceUniversity of StrathclydeScotlandUnited Kingdom

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