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© 2017

Unconventional Conflict

A Modeling Perspective

  • Includes a review of unconventional conflict and analyses and models of unconventional conflict

  • Discusses the holistic ontology for unconventional conflict

  • Provides an overview of the verification, validation and accreditation methodology for unconventional conflict models

  • Guides the reader on designing unconventional conflict models using the new methodology

Book

Part of the Understanding Complex Systems book series (UCS)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xvii
  2. Dean S. Hartley III
    Pages 1-11
  3. Dean S. Hartley III
    Pages 13-37
  4. Dean S. Hartley III
    Pages 39-98
  5. Dean S. Hartley III
    Pages 99-106
  6. Dean S. Hartley III
    Pages 107-145
  7. Dean S. Hartley III
    Pages 147-170
  8. Dean S. Hartley III
    Pages 171-194
  9. Dean S. Hartley III
    Pages 195-199
  10. Back Matter
    Pages 201-218

About this book

Introduction

This book describes issues in modeling unconventional conflict and suggests a new way to do the modeling.  It presents an ontology that describes the unconventional conflict domain, which allows for greater ease in modeling unconventional conflict. Supporting holistic modeling, which means that we can see the entire picture of what needs to be modeled, the ontology allows us to make informed decisions about what to model and what to omit. The unconventional conflict ontology also separates the things we understand best from the things we understand least. This separation means that we can perform verification, validation and accreditation (VV&A) more efficiently and can describe the competence of the model more accurately.

However, before this message can be presented in its entirety the supporting body of knowledge has to be explored. For this reason, the book offers chapters that focus on the description of unconventional conflict and the analyses that have been performed, modeling, with a concentration on past efforts at modeling unconventional conflict, the precursors to the ontology, and VV&A. Unconventional conflict is a complex, messy thing. It normally involves multiple actors, with their own conflicting agendas and differing concepts of legitimate actions. This book will present a useful introduction for researchers and professionals within the field.

Keywords

Defining Unconventional Conflict risk management and mitigation VV&A Unconventional Warfare (UW) Information Warfare noncombatant evacuation operations human-in-the-loop (HITL) model

Authors and affiliations

  1. 1.Hartley ConsultingOak RidgeUSA

About the authors

DEAN S. HARTLEY III is the Principal of Hartley Consulting.  He is also the Chief Operating Officer (COO) and Vice President of Sisyphus Energy, Inc. (SEI).  Previously he was a Senior Member of the Research Staff at the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Facilities (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Y12 Site and East Tennessee Technology Park).  Hartley graduated Summa Cum Laude, Phi Beta Kappa from Wofford College in 1968, majoring in mathematics and foreign languages.  He received his Ph.D. in piecewise linear topology from the University of Georgia in 1973.  

Hartley is a past Vice President of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), a past Director of the Military Operations Research Society (MORS), past President of the Military Applications Society (MAS), and a member of the INFORMS Simulation Society (ISIM).  He also serves as the Technical Advisor for Operations Research and Modeling to the International Psychopharmacology Algorithm Project (IPAP).  Hartley is a Senior Fellow with the George Mason University School of Public Policy, a consulting resource for the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), Modeling, Virtual Environments & Simulation (MOVES) Institute, and a Research Fellow with the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Center for the Management of Science and Technology (CMOST).  

Hartley has published Predicting Combat Effects, co-authored OOTW Analysis and Modeling Techniques (OOTWAMT) Workshop Proceedings and NATO Code of Best Practice for C2 Assessment, contributed ten chapters to eight other books, and written more than 150 articles and technical documents.  His expertise includes modeling of combat, DIME/PMESII (diplomatic, information, military, economic / political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure) operations, verification, validation, and accreditation (VV&A) of models, psychopharmacology modeling, and simulation.  Hartley received the Koopman Prize for best publication in military operations research in 1994 and the Steinhardt Prize for lifetime achievement in operations research in 2013.

Bibliographic information

Reviews

“I consider this book to be a must-have reference. As a career operations research analyst, it is a real practitioner’s guide to unconventional conflict. Even more importantly, an analyst can find important information in this book for any sub-element required of unconventional modeling. … This book stands as an excellent example of the complexities in unconventional conflict.” (William P. Fox, Interfaces, Vol. 47 (5), October, 2017)