An Economic Analysis of Conflicts

With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949

  • Nicos Christodoulakis

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xxi
  2. Nicos Christodoulakis
    Pages 1-12
  3. Nicos Christodoulakis
    Pages 25-39
  4. Nicos Christodoulakis
    Pages 41-60
  5. Nicos Christodoulakis
    Pages 61-81
  6. Nicos Christodoulakis
    Pages 83-93
  7. Nicos Christodoulakis
    Pages 95-113
  8. Nicos Christodoulakis
    Pages 135-142
  9. Nicos Christodoulakis
    Pages 143-151
  10. Nicos Christodoulakis
    Pages 153-160

About this book


This book provides a quantitative framework for the analysis of conflict dynamics and for estimating the economic costs associated with civil wars. The author develops modified Lotka-Volterra equations to model conflict dynamics, to yield realistic representations of battle processes, and to allow us to assess prolonged conflict traps. The economic costs of civil wars are evaluated with the help of two alternative methods: Firstly, the author employs a production function to determine how the destruction of human and physical capital stocks undermines economic growth in the medium term. Secondly, he develops a synthetic control approach, where the cost is obtained as the divergence of actual economic activity from a hypothetical path in the absence of civil war. The difference between the two approaches gives an indication of the adverse externalities impinging upon the economy in the form of institutional destruction. By using detailed time-series regarding battle casualties, local socio-economic indicators, and capital stock destruction during the Greek Civil War (1946-1949), a full-scale application of the above framework is presented and discussed.


Conflict Modelling Civil War Costs of Conflict Country Failure Counterfactual Analysis Lotka-Volterra Equation Economic Costs of War Greek civil war

Authors and affiliations

  • Nicos Christodoulakis
    • 1
  1. 1.Athens University of Economics & BusinesDepartment of International & European E AthensGreece

Bibliographic information

Industry Sectors
Finance, Business & Banking