Forecasting the Health of Elderly Populations

  • Kenneth G. Manton
  • Burton H. Singer
  • Richard M. Suzman

Part of the Springer Series in Statistics book series (SBH)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-x
  2. Introduction

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 1-1
    2. Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, Richard M. Suzman
      Pages 3-35
  3. Methodological Issues

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 37-37
    2. H. Dennis Tolley, James C. Hickman, Edward A. Lew
      Pages 39-49
    3. Kenneth G. Manton
      Pages 79-106
  4. Forecasting Techniques for Specific Diseases

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 107-107
    2. Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, Eric Stallard
      Pages 109-136
    3. Kenneth G. Manton, John E. Dowd, Eric Stallard
      Pages 137-158
    4. Kenneth G. Manton, Eric Stallard, Korbin Liu
      Pages 159-181
    5. H. Dennis Tolley, Kenneth G. Manton, J. Richard Bumgarner
      Pages 183-203
  5. Effects of Interventions on Health Costs

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 205-205
    2. Kenneth G. Manton, Larry S. Corder, Robert Clark
      Pages 207-238
    3. H. Dennis Tolley, James C. Vertrees, Kenneth G. Manton
      Pages 275-287
    4. Joshua M. Wiener, Raymond J. Hanley, Denise A. Spence, Sheila E. Murray
      Pages 289-304
  6. Longitudinal Research: Current Status and Future Outlook

  7. Back Matter
    Pages 367-371

About this book


Models to forecast changes in mortality, morbidity, and disability in elderly populations are essential to national and state policies for health and welfare programs. This volume presents a wide-ranging survey of the forecasting of health of elderly populations, including the modelling of the incidence of chronic diseases in the elderly, the differing perspectives of actuarial and health care statistics, and an assessment of the impact of new technologies on the elderly population. Amongst the topics covered are - uncertainties in projections from census and social security data and actuarial approaches to forecasting - plausible ranges for population growth using biol ogical models and epidemiological time series data - the financing of long term care programs - the effects of major disabling diseases on health expenditures - forecasting cancer risks and risk factors As a result, this wide-ranging volume will become an indispensable reference for all those whose research touches on these topics.


Radiologieinformationssystem Time series cancer epidemiological statistics

Editors and affiliations

  • Kenneth G. Manton
    • 1
  • Burton H. Singer
    • 2
  • Richard M. Suzman
    • 3
  1. 1.Center for Demographic StudiesDuke UniversityDurhamUSA
  2. 2.Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of MedicineYale UniversityNew HavenUSA
  3. 3.NIH/NIABethesdaUSA

Bibliographic information

  • DOI
  • Copyright Information Springer-Verlag New York 1993
  • Publisher Name Springer, New York, NY
  • eBook Packages Springer Book Archive
  • Print ISBN 978-1-4613-9334-4
  • Online ISBN 978-1-4613-9332-0
  • Series Print ISSN 1431-8776
  • Buy this book on publisher's site
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