Engineering Probabilistic Design and Maintenance for Flood Protection

  • Roger Cooke
  • Max Mendel
  • Han Vrijling

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xiii
  2. The Case for Engineering Probability

    1. Max Mendel
      Pages 1-22
  3. Part I

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 23-23
    2. Jan van Noortwijk, Matthijs Kok, Roger Cooke
      Pages 25-56
    3. Leo Klatter
      Pages 57-59
    4. John Shortle
      Pages 61-66
    5. Hans van der Weide
      Pages 77-83
    6. Jan van Noortwijk, Matthijs Kok, Roger Cooke
      Pages 85-86
  4. Part II

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 87-87
    2. Steve Chick, John Shortle, Pieter van Gelder, Max Mendel
      Pages 89-107
    3. Richard Jorissen, Matthijs Kok
      Pages 109-131
    4. Jolanta Misiewicz
      Pages 133-134
    5. Steve Chick, John Shortle, Pieter van Gelder, Max Mendel
      Pages 135-138
  5. Part III

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 139-139
    2. Chun-Ching Li, Armen Der Kiureghian
      Pages 141-160
    3. Arie Kraak
      Pages 161-162
    4. Ton Vrouwenvelder
      Pages 163-165
    5. Arne Huseby
      Pages 167-172
    6. Armen Der Kiureghian, Chun-Ching Li
      Pages 173-177
  6. Part IV

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 179-179
    2. Han Vrijling, Pieter van Gelder
      Pages 181-198
    3. Rommert Dekker
      Pages 199-200
    4. Ad van der Toorn
      Pages 201-202
    5. Tom Mazzuchi
      Pages 203-207
    6. Pieter van Gelder, Han Vrijling
      Pages 209-213

About this book


The First Conference on Engineering Probability in Flood Defense was orga­ nized by the Department of Mathematics and Informatics of the Delft U niver­ sity of Technology and the Department of Industrial Engineering and Opera­ tions Research of the University of California at Berkeley, and was held on June 1,2 1995 in Delft. Groups at Berkeley and Delft were both deeply engaged in modeling deterioration in civil structures, particularly flood defense structures. The plans for the conference were well under way when the dramatic floods in The Netherlands and California in the winter of 1994-1995 focused world attention on these problems. The design of civil engineering structures and systems is essentially an example of decision making under uncertainty. Although the decision making part of the process is generally acknowledged, the uncertainty in variables and param­ eters in the design problem is less frequently recognized. In many practical design procedures the uncertainty is concealed behind sharp probabilistic de­ sign targets like 'once in a thousand years' combined with a standardized use of safety factors. The choice of these probabilistic design targets, however, is based on an assessment of the uncertainty of the variable under consideration, and on its assessed importance. The value of the safety factor is governed by similar considerations. Standard practice is simply accu~ulated experience and engineering judgment. In light of the great number of civil engineering structures that function suc-. cessfully, one may say that this standard practice has proven itself broadly satisfactory.


civil engineering research uncertainty

Editors and affiliations

  • Roger Cooke
    • 1
  • Max Mendel
    • 2
  • Han Vrijling
    • 1
  1. 1.Delft University of TechnologyDelftThe Netherlands
  2. 2.University of CaliforniaBerkeleyUSA

Bibliographic information

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