Estimating Impact

A Handbook of Computational Methods and Models for Anticipating Economic, Social, Political and Security Effects in International Interventions

  • Alexander Kott
  • Gary Citrenbaum

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xviii
  2. Alexander Kott, Gary Citrenbaum, G. Jiyun Kim
    Pages 1-14
  3. Ed Waltz
    Pages 15-41
  4. Mark Abdollahian, Jacek Kugler, Brice Nicholson, Hana Oh
    Pages 43-90
  5. Alan K. Graham
    Pages 91-134
  6. William H. Bennett
    Pages 135-178
  7. Corey Lofdahl
    Pages 179-204
  8. Ravi Bhavnani, Dan Miodownik, Rick Riolo
    Pages 205-237
  9. Alexander Kott, Bruce Skarin
    Pages 239-262
  10. Deborah Duong, Robert Turner, Karl Selke
    Pages 263-284
  11. David Jonker, William Wright
    Pages 285-309
  12. Dean Hartley, Stuart Starr
    Pages 311-336
  13. Alexander Kott, Stephen Morse
    Pages 337-347
  14. Back Matter
    Pages 349-362

About this book


International interventions are among the most controversial and complex of human endeavors. In today's smaller, flatter, and interdependent world, interventions of all sorts - economic sanctions or aid, natural-disaster relief, various diplomatic or civil-military engagements—are likely to persist and to become yet more complex and difficult. The last decade has seen an explosive growth of research on methods and tools, particularly computational tools, for estimating effects of interventions. In ESTIMATING IMPACT Alexander Kott and Gary Citrenbaum, with a stellar group of contributors, offer readers a broad and practical introduction to computational approaches for anticipating effects of interventions. International interventions and estimating effects of such interventions on human, economic, social, and political variables are of critical importance to business analysts and planners as well as to government policy planners and non-governmental humanitarian organizations. In current practice, intervention-related decisions, planning, and effects estimating rely on historical analogies, on qualitative theories, on expert opinions, experience, and intuition. ESTIMATING IMPACT argues for a broader, more balanced view. It describes how emerging computational techniques can help analysts, planners, and decision-makers in a number of ways: estimating the range of likely future conditions, highlighting unwarranted assumptions, generating alternative approaches, elucidating details and uncovering the potential for unanticipated effects. While the field is still very young, the trend is unmistakable: there is a rising recognition that quantitative, computational methods are indispensable elements—although by no means panaceas —for making prudent decisions regarding international interventions.


Computer artificial life computational social science computer science conflict resolution database decision science game theory incertainty international intervention modeling optimization peace operations verification visualization

Editors and affiliations

  • Alexander Kott
    • 1
  • Gary Citrenbaum
    • 2
  1. 1.Army Research LaboratoryAdelphiUSA
  2. 2.SoSA CorporationFairfaxUSA

Bibliographic information