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© 2009

Clinical Prediction Models

A Practical Approach to Development, Validation, and Updating

Book

Part of the Statistics for Biology and Health book series (SBH)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xxviii
  2. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 1-7
  3. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 11-31
  4. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 33-52
  5. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 53-82
  6. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 83-100
  7. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 101-111
  8. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 115-137
  9. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 139-157
  10. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 159-173
  11. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 175-189
  12. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 191-211
  13. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 231-242
  14. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 243-254
  15. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 255-280
  16. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 281-297
  17. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 299-311
  18. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 313-331
  19. E.W. Steyerberg
    Pages 335-360

About this book

Introduction

This book provides insight and practical illustrations on how modern statistical concepts and regression methods can be applied in medical prediction problems, including diagnostic and prognostic outcomes. Many advances have been made in statistical approaches towards outcome prediction, but these innovations are insufficiently applied in medical research. Old-fashioned, data hungry methods are often used in data sets of limited size, validation of predictions is not done or done simplistically, and updating of previously developed models is not considered. A sensible strategy is needed for model development, validation, and updating, such that prediction models can better support medical practice.

Clinical prediction models presents a practical checklist with seven steps that need to be considered for development of a valid prediction model. These include preliminary considerations such as dealing with missing values; coding of predictors; selection of main effects and interactions for a multivariable model; estimation of model parameters with shrinkage methods and incorporation of external data; evaluation of performance and usefulness; internal validation; and presentation formats. The steps are illustrated with many small case-studies and R code, with data sets made available in the public domain. The book further focuses on generalizability of prediction models, including patterns of invalidity that may be encountered in new settings, approaches to updating of a model, and comparisons of centers after case-mix adjustment by a prediction model.

The text is primarily intended for clinical epidemiologists and biostatisticians. It can be used as a textbook for a graduate course on predictive modeling in diagnosis and prognosis. It is beneficial if readers are familiar with common statistical models in medicine: linear regression, logistic regression, and Cox regression. The book is practical in nature. But it provides a philosophical perspective on data analysis in medicine that goes beyond predictive modeling. In this era of evidence-based medicine, randomized clinical trials are the basis for assessment of treatment efficacy. Prediction models are key to individualizing diagnostic and treatment decision making.

Ewout Steyerberg (1967) is Professor of Medical Decision Making, in particular prognostic modeling, at Erasmus MC–University Medical Center Rotterdam, the Netherlands. His work on prediction models was stimulated by various research grants including a fellowship from the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has published over 250 peer-reviewed articles in collaboration with many clinical researchers, both in methodological and medical journals.

Keywords

Anästhesie-Informations-Management-System Data-analysis Evidence-Based Medicine Prediction Radiologieinformationssystem Regression modeling Validation coding data analysis diagnosis linear regression

Authors and affiliations

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Bibliographic information

  • Book Title Clinical Prediction Models
  • Book Subtitle A Practical Approach to Development, Validation, and Updating
  • Authors Ewout W. Steyerberg
  • Series Title Statistics for Biology and Health
  • Series Abbreviated Title Statistics for Biology,Health (formerly:Statist.i.Health Scienc.)
  • DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-77244-8
  • Copyright Information Springer-Verlag New York 2009
  • Publisher Name Springer, New York, NY
  • eBook Packages Mathematics and Statistics Mathematics and Statistics (R0)
  • Hardcover ISBN 978-0-387-77243-1
  • Softcover ISBN 978-1-4419-2648-7
  • eBook ISBN 978-0-387-77244-8
  • Series ISSN 1431-8776
  • Edition Number 1
  • Number of Pages XXVIII, 500
  • Number of Illustrations 0 b/w illustrations, 0 illustrations in colour
  • Topics Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences
    Internal Medicine
  • Buy this book on publisher's site
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Reviews

From the reviews:

"This book covers an important topic, because these prediction models are essential for individualizing diagnostic and treatment decision making. The topic is of increased importance as evidence-based medicine is increasingly implemented and as scientific and technological advances reveal new potential predictors of outcome. This book presents an approach for developing, validating, and updating prediction models.… [I]t provides ways to optimally utilize regression techniques to predict an outcome.… This book is written in a clear and accessible style.… [A]valuable resource for anyone interested in developing or applying a prediction model." (Todd A. Alonzo, American Journal of Epidemiology, 2009; Vol. 170, No. 4)

"Overall I think this is a well-written book, which will have a wide appeal. The idea of defining a strategy to deal with clinical prediction problems might be somewhat controversial, but considering the variable quality of statistical analyses that appear in the medical literature, I believe such an approach is desirable. The book appears to have struck a good balance between practical examples and descriptions of statistical techniques.... It is refreshing to see a practical book applying many modern regression techniques to real problems." (David Ohlssen, Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, Issue 6, 2009)

"Dr Steyerberg … aims to provide an insight and also a practical illustration on how modern statistical concepts and regression methods can be applied in medical prediction outcomes. The book…will be of interest to those who work in medical cybernetics and indeed all cybernetics and systems researchers who are studying such medical problems and wish to apply statistical approaches and methodologies. It is worth examining the detailed contents list … and individual chapters may be of particular value to potential readers." (C. J. H. Mann, Kybernetes, Vol. 38 (6), 2009)

"The book … will be of interest to those who work in medical cybernetics and indeed all cybernetics and systems researchers who are studying such medical problems and wish to apply statistical approaches and methodologies." (C. J. H. Mann, Kybernetes, Vol. 38, No. 6, 2009)

“…and excellent practical guide for developing, assessing and updating clinical models both for disease prognosis and diagnosis. The book’s clinical focus in this era of evidence-based medicine is refreshing and serves as a much-needed addition to statistical modeling of clinical data. The book assumes a basic familiarity with modeling using generalized linear models, focusing instead on the real challenges facing applied biostatisticians and epidemiologists wanting to create useful models: dealing with a plethora of model choices, small sample sizes, many candidate predictors and missing data. This is an example-based book illuminating the vagaries of clinical data and offering sound practical advice on data exploration, model selection and data presentation. …The author uses simple simulations using a few reproducible R commands to motivate the use of imputation methods and shrinkage. These simple but illuminating illustrations are one of the highlights of the book and serve as excellent pedagogical tools for motivating good statistical thinking. …” (International Statistical Review 2009, 77, 2)

“This is an excellent text that should be read by anyone performing prediction modeling. … the text has three audiences epidemiologists and applied biostatisticians who want to develop or apply a prediction model health care professionals who want to judge a study that presents a prediction model and theoretical researchers … . I found the book very useful and I believe clinicians and policy makers will be similarly well served. … All are excellent summaries for readers and provide links to resources for further investigation.” (Chris Andrews, Technometrics, Vol. 53 (1), February, 2011)