Principles of Forecasting

A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners

  • J. Scott Armstrong

Part of the International Series in Operations Research & Management Science book series (ISOR, volume 30)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xii
  2. Introduction

    1. J. Scott Armstrong
      Pages 1-12
  3. Role Playing

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 13-14
    2. J. Scott Armstrong
      Pages 15-30
  4. Intentions

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 31-32
    2. Vicki G. Morwitz
      Pages 33-56
  5. Expert Opinions

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 57-58
    2. Nigel Harvey
      Pages 59-80
    3. Thomas R. Stewart
      Pages 81-106
  6. Conjoint Analysis

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 145-146
    2. Dick R. Wittink, Trond Bergestuen
      Pages 147-167
  7. Judgmental Bootstrapping

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 169-170
  8. Analogies

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 193-194
    2. George T. Duncan, Wilpen L. Gorr, Janusz Szczypula
      Pages 195-213
  9. Extrapolation

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 215-216
    2. William Remus, Marcus O’Connor
      Pages 245-256
  10. Rule-Based Forecasting

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 257-258
    2. J. Scott Armstrong, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy
      Pages 259-282
  11. Expert Systems

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 283-283
    2. Fred Collopy, Monica Adya, J. Scott Armstrong
      Pages 285-300
  12. Econometric Methods

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 301-302
    2. P. Geoffrey Allen, Robert Fildes
      Pages 303-362
  13. Selecting Methods

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 363-363
    2. J. Scott Armstrong
      Pages 365-386
  14. Integrating, Adjusting, and Combining

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 387-388
    2. Richard Webby, Marcus O’Connor, Michael Lawrence
      Pages 389-403
    3. Nada R. Sanders, Larry P. Ritzman
      Pages 405-416
    4. J. Scott Armstrong
      Pages 417-439
  15. Evaluating Methods

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 441-441
    2. J. Scott Armstrong
      Pages 443-472
  16. Assessing Uncertainty

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 473-473
    2. Chris Chatfield
      Pages 475-494
    3. Hal R. Arkes
      Pages 495-515
  17. Gaining Acceptance

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 517-517
    2. W. Larry Gregory, Anne Duran
      Pages 519-540
  18. Monitoring Forecasts

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 541-541
  19. Applications of Principles

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 555-556
    2. Dennis A. Ahlburg
      Pages 557-575
    3. Roderick J. Brodie, Peter J. Danaher, V. Kumar, Peter S. H. Leeflang
      Pages 597-611
    4. Peter S. Fader, Bruce G. S. Hardie
      Pages 613-630
  20. Diffusion of Principles

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 631-632
    2. James E. Cox Jr., David G. Loomis
      Pages 633-649
    3. Leonard J. Tashman, Jim Hoover
      Pages 651-676
  21. Summary

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 677-677

About this book


Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?).
The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles.
The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.


finance marketing production

Editors and affiliations

  • J. Scott Armstrong
    • 1
  1. 1.The Wharton SchoolUniversity of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphiaUSA

Bibliographic information

  • DOI
  • Copyright Information Springer-Verlag US 2001
  • Publisher Name Springer, Boston, MA
  • eBook Packages Springer Book Archive
  • Print ISBN 978-0-7923-7401-5
  • Online ISBN 978-0-306-47630-3
  • Series Print ISSN 0884-8289
  • Buy this book on publisher's site
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