Further investigations of how rare disaster information affects risk taking: A registered replication report

  • Garston LiangEmail author
  • Ben Newell
  • Tim Rakow
  • Eldad Yechiam
Brief Report


Across two experiments, Newell, Rakow, Yechiam, and Sambur (Nature Climate Change, 6(2), 158–161, 2016) demonstrated that providing rare disaster information increased people’s tolerance for risk-taking. These results motivated a series of as yet-unpublished follow-up experiments involving new manipulations. However, the failure to replicate the original finding in these follow-ups has led our confidence in the original effect to wane. The aim of this registered report was to reconsider the evidence, published and unpublished, for the rare disaster information effect in light of new data. We conducted a large scale replication (N= 242) in which we failed to find evidence for the effect reported in Newell et al. thus further reducing our confidence. This registered report format provides a transparent framework by which to address the discrepancy between the published and previously-unpublished findings.


Replication Disaster information effect Risky choice 



This study was supported by the Australian Research Council Discovery Project grant (DP160101186).

Author Contributions

B.N., T.R., E.Y., and G.L. devised the experiment. G.L. collected the data, conducted the analyses, and wrote the paper. B.N., T.R., and E.Y. edited the final manuscript.

Supplementary material

13423_2019_1594_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (3.2 mb)
(PDF 3.15 MB)


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Copyright information

© The Psychonomic Society, Inc. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Garston Liang
    • 1
    Email author
  • Ben Newell
    • 1
  • Tim Rakow
    • 2
  • Eldad Yechiam
    • 3
  1. 1.School of PsychologyUniversity of New South Wales, SydneyKensingtonAustralia
  2. 2.Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and NeuroscienceKings College LondonLondonUK
  3. 3.Faculty of Industrial Engineering and ManagementTechnion-Israel Institute of TechnologyHaifaIsrael

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