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Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

, Volume 43, Issue 3, pp 188–191 | Cite as

Forecast of Polar Stratospheric Vortex Dynamics Using the SL-AV Global Atmosphere Model

  • V. V. Shashkin
The Winners of the Conference of Young Scientists

Abstract

The quality of Arctic winter stratospheric dynamics forecast using the SL-AV atmospheric global circulation model is studied. The series of numerical experiments show that forecasts with the lead time up to 7 days are successful. Zonal wind reversal during minor sudden stratospheric warmings is predicted 10–11 days ahead. Overall, the situations of strong polar jet disturbances are beneficial for the forecast accuracy.

Keywords

Stratospheric polar vortex sudden stratospheric warming medium-range forecast SL-AV global atmosphere model 

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Copyright information

© Allerton Press, Inc. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute of Numerical MathematicsRussian Academy of SciencesMoscowRussia
  2. 2.Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian FederationMoscowRussia
  3. 3.Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University)DolgoprudnyRussia

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