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Clinical Pharmacokinetics

, Volume 18, Issue 5, pp 409–418 | Cite as

Bayesian Forecasting of Serum Gentamicin Concentrations in Intensive Care Patients

  • Keith A. Rodvold
  • Randy D. Pryka
  • Peggy G. Kuehl
  • Robert A. Blum
  • Phillip Donahue
Original Research Article

Summary

This study retrospectively evaluated the predictive performance of a 1-compartment Bayesian forecasting program in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients with stable renal function. A comparison was made of the reliability of 3 sets of population-based parameter estimates and 2 serum concentration monitoring strategies. A larger mean error for prediction of peak gentamicin concentrations was seen with literature-derived parameters than when ICU population-based parameter estimates were used. Bias and precision improved when non-steady-state peak and trough concentrations were used to predict those at steady-state; the addition of steady-state values did not provide additional information for predictions once non-steady-state feedback concentrations were incorporated. The addition of 4 serial gentamicin concentrations obtained at both non-steady-state and steady-state did not noticeably improve the predictive performance.

The results demonstrate that initial ICU pharmacokinetic parameter estimates for a 1-compartment Bayesian model provide accurate prediction of steady-state gentamicin concentrations. Prediction bias and precision showed the greatest improvement when non-steady-state gentamicin concentrations were used to determine individualised pharmacokinetic parameters.

Keywords

Intensive Care Unit Gentamicin Intensive Care Unit Patient Trough Concentration Population Parameter 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© ADIS Press Limited 1990

Authors and Affiliations

  • Keith A. Rodvold
    • 1
    • 2
  • Randy D. Pryka
    • 1
    • 2
  • Peggy G. Kuehl
    • 1
    • 2
  • Robert A. Blum
    • 1
    • 2
  • Phillip Donahue
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.College of PharmacyUniversity of Illinois at Chicago, Veterans Affairs West Side Medical CenterChicagoUSA
  2. 2.College of MedicineUniversity of Illinois at ChicagoChicagoUSA

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