Performance assessments of geologic repositories for high-level nuclear waste will be used to determine regulatory compliance. The determination, that with a “reasonable expectation” regulatory limits are met, is based on the presumption that all of the relevant physical, chemical and biological processes have been modeled with enough accuracy to insure that a confident judgment of safety may be made. For the geologic disposal of high-level nuclear waste, this generally means that models must be capable of calculating radiation exposures to a specified population at distances of tens of kilometers for periods of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. A total system performance assessment will consist of a series of cascading models that are meant in toto to capture repository performance. There are numerous sources of uncertainty in these models: scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty and data uncertainty. These uncertainties will propagate through the analysis, and the uncertainty in the total system analysis must necessarily increase with time. For the highly-coupled, non-linear systems that are characteristic of many of the physical and chemical processes, one may anticipate emergent properties that cannot, in fact, be predicted. For all of these reasons, a performance assessment is not in and of itself a sufficient basis for determining the safety of a repository, but it remains a necessary part of the effort to develop a substantive understanding of a repository site.
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My use of Vancanson's duck is directly inspired by the discussion of the same by Paul Glimcher in his Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain - The Science of Neuroeconomics. I believe that much can be gained by a broad consideration of the properties and challenges of describing and modeling complex systems, and Glimcher's book is an exposition on these challenges. I have benefited greatly from conversations and the writings of Lenny Konikow, John Bredehoeft and Naomi Oreskes. I have also benefited from numerous discussions and debates with the advocates of performance assessments. I particularly thank John Garrick, Martin Tierny, John Helton and Peter Swift for their patience and insightful explanations. Although there is an enviable “quantitative” appeal with a performance assessment, my geologic background cautions me against an unqualified acceptance of such results.
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Ewing, R.C. Performance Assessments of Geologic Repositories for High-Level Nuclear Waste: Are they Necessary or Sufficient?. MRS Online Proceedings Library 824, 137–146 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1557/PROC-824-CC3.2