Some remarks on the seismic risk to lifelines, with references to the activity of the Vrancea seismogenic zone
A framework for the analysis of seismic risk to lifelines, with references to the case of Vrancea earthquakes, is presented. The framework dealt with is probability based. It relies on the use of stationary, Poissonian, models, while complications raised by the consideration of non-stationarity (as e.g. those raised by the consideration of the evolutionary character of vulnerability of some elements at risk) are avoided. The elements at risk considered may be lifelines as a whole, or components of them. Seismic action and seismic hazard are considered, alternatively, at source level or at site level. Radiation/attenuation features are defined in this frame. Adverse effects of earthquakes (referred to in general as damage) may be related alternatively, in specific ways, to the various elements at risk considered. Seismic vulnerability may be considered as source related or as site related, too. Various exposure patterns are considered. Alternative models of functionality are discussed and risk characteristics are generally related to them. The definition of entities referred to are expressed in probabilistic terms and convolution relations, leading up to risk estimates, are given, basically in discrete terms. In connection with the features of Vrancea earthquakes, specific recurrence characteristics and needs of additional specification, considering the variability of source mechanisms, are discussed. Possibilities of simplification of the approach, in order to avoid the excessive needs of basic data and of computing effort raised by a rigorous approach, are discussed, too.
Keywordslifelines seismic hazard seismic risk seismic vulnerability Vrancea earthquakes
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