Statistical studies of sunspots
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We perform two statistical studies of monthly mean sunspots one of them by considering the Daubechies 4-wavelet analysis and the other one by using the multiple linear regression method. We found that the Hurst’s parameters of the fractional Brownian motion is equal to = 0.98 manifesting the long memory of the data set. The proposed second method is used for solar cycles 16 and 23 and the results are remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by solar dynamo and precursor methods. A weak correlation is found among the maximum amplitude of a cycle and the other ones related to the prior seven and twelve cycles. An early prediction of the maximum smoothed international sunspot number for cycles 24 and 25 are 128 and 161, respectively.
Keywordsforecasting long-term prediction solar activity sunspot numbers
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