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Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica Hungarica

, Volume 42, Issue 3, pp 275–283 | Cite as

Statistical studies of sunspots

  • V. M. Silbergleit
  • S. V. Gigola
  • C. E. D’Attellis
Article
  • 27 Downloads

Abstract

We perform two statistical studies of monthly mean sunspots one of them by considering the Daubechies 4-wavelet analysis and the other one by using the multiple linear regression method. We found that the Hurst’s parameters of the fractional Brownian motion is equal to = 0.98 manifesting the long memory of the data set. The proposed second method is used for solar cycles 16 and 23 and the results are remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by solar dynamo and precursor methods. A weak correlation is found among the maximum amplitude of a cycle and the other ones related to the prior seven and twelve cycles. An early prediction of the maximum smoothed international sunspot number for cycles 24 and 25 are 128 and 161, respectively.

Keywords

forecasting long-term prediction solar activity sunspot numbers 

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Copyright information

© Akadémiai Kiadó 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • V. M. Silbergleit
    • 1
    • 3
  • S. V. Gigola
    • 4
  • C. E. D’Attellis
    • 2
  1. 1.Departamento de Física, Facultad de IngenieríaUBAArgentina
  2. 2.Universidad Favaloro and Centro de Matemática Aplicada, Universidad Nacional de San MartínArgentina
  3. 3.CONICET of ArgentinaArgentina
  4. 4.Departamento de Matemática, Facultad de IngenieríaUBAArgentina

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