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Eurasian Economic Review

, Volume 2, Issue 2, pp 1–16 | Cite as

EU Enlargement to Turkey: Potential Effects on Turkey’s Agricultural Income and Markets

  • Thomas Fellmann
  • Myrna van Leeuwen
  • Petra Salamon
  • Ali Koc
  • Gulden Boluk
Article

Abstract

Turkey is officially recognized as a candidate country for EU membership and formal accession negotiations started in October 2005. Given the importance of Turkey’s agricultural sector, a Turkish accession to the EU could be expected to impact the agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. This paper provides an in-depth model-based quantitative assessment of the potential impacts of a Turkish EU-membership for agricultural income and commodity markets, focusing in particular on the effects in Turkey. Results show that the main impacts on Turkish agriculture would be a reduction in subsidies, producer prices, and quantities produced. A decrease in agricultural income, especially for Turkish crop producers (except for tobacco farmers), is also projected. In contrast, producers of sheep meat, broilers and dairy milk would benefit from EU accession due to lower feed costs. Moreover, the demand levels of most commodities are projected to increase due to lower prices, thus Turkish consumers are expected to gain from an accession to the EU.

Keywords

Turkey EU Enlargement Agricultural Markets 

JEL Classification

Q11 Q13 C45 

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Copyright information

© Eurasia Business and Economics Society 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Thomas Fellmann
    • 1
  • Myrna van Leeuwen
    • 2
  • Petra Salamon
    • 3
  • Ali Koc
    • 4
  • Gulden Boluk
    • 4
  1. 1.European Commission, Joint Research CentreInstitute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS)Spain
  2. 2.Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI)The Netherlands
  3. 3.Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI)Institute of Market Analysis and Agricultural Trade PolicyGermany
  4. 4.Department of EconomicsAkdeniz UniversityTurkey

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