Abstract
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 reported that the Earth air temperature would rise by 1.4–5.8°C and 2.5°C on average by the year 2100. China regional climate model results also showed that the air temperature on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) would increase by 2.2–2.6°C in the next 50 years. A numerical permafrost model was developed to predict the changes of permafrost distribution on the QTP over the next 50 and 100 years under the two climatic warming scenarios, i.e. 0.02°C/a, the lower value of IPCC’s estimation, and 0.052°C/a, the higher value predicted by Qin et al. Simulation results show that (i) in the case of 0.02°C/a air-temperature rise, permafrost area on the QTP will shrink about 8.8% in the next 50 years, and high temperature permafrost with mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) higher than-0.11°C may turn into seasonal frozen soils. In the next 100 years, permafrost with MAGT higher than-0.5°C will disappear and the permafrost area will shrink up to 13.4%. (ii) In the case of 0.052°C/a air-temperature rise, permafrost area on the QTP will reduce about 13.5% after 50 years. More remarkable degradation will take place after 100 years, and permafrost area will reduce about 46%. Permafrost with MAGT higher than-2°C will turn into seasonal frozen soils and even unfrozen soils.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Cheng, G., He, P., Linearity engineering in permafrost areas, Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology (in Chinese), 2001, 23(3): 213–217.
Nelson, F. E., Anisimov, O. A., Shiklomanov, N. I., Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost, Nature, 2001, 410, 889–890.
Wu, Q., Zhu, Y., Liu, Y., Evaluating model of frozen soil environment change under engineering actions, Science in China, Ser. D, 2002, 45(10): 893–902.
Nelson, F. E., Anisimov, O. A., Shiklomanov, N. I., Climate change and hazard zonation in the circum-Arctic permafrost regions, Nature Hazards, 2002, 26: 203–225.
Instanes, A., Climate change and possible impact on Arctic infrastructure, in Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Permafrost, Vol. 1. ((eds. Phylips, M. et al.), Tokyo: AA Balkema Publishers, 2003, 461–466.
Delisle, G., Numerical simulation of permafrost growth and decay, Journal of Quaternary Science, 1998, 13(4): 325–333.
Delisle, G., Caspers, G., Freund, H., Permafrost in northcentral Europe during the Weichselian: how deep? in Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Permafrost, Vol. 1. ((eds. Phylips, M. et al.), Tokyo: AA Balkema Publishers, 2003, 187–191.
Anisimov, O. A., Changing climate and permafrost distribution in the Soviet Arctic, Physical Geography, 1989, 10(3): 285–293.
Marchenko, S. S., A model of permafrost formation and occurrences in the intracontinental mountains, Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift, 2001, 55: 230–234.
Malevsky-Malevich, S. P., Molkentin, E. K., Nadyozhina, E. D. et al., Numerical simulation of permafrost parameters distribution in Russia, Cold Regions Science and Technology, 2001, 32: 1–11.
Tong, C., Wu, Q., Permafrost zonation of ground temperature and stability of engineering constructions in the western region, China, Journal of Glaciology and Geocyology (in Chinese), 1996, 18(Supp.): 166–173.
Wang, S. L., Zhao, X. F., Guo, D. X. et al., Response of permafrost to climate change in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, Journal of Glaciology and Geocyology (in Chinese), 1996, 18(Supp.): 157–165.
Jian, N., A simulateion of biomes on the Tibetan Plateau and their responses to global climate change, Mountain Research and Development, 2002, 20(1): 80–89.
Li, X., Cheng, G. D., A GIS-aided response model of high altitude permafrost to global change, Science in China, Ser. D, 1999, 42(1): 72–79.
Nan, Z. T., Li, S. X., Liu, Y. Z., Mean annual ground temperature distribution on the Tibet Plateau: Permafrost distribution mapping and further applications, Journal of Glaciology and Geocyology (in Chinese), 2002, 24(2): 142–148.
Li, S. X., Cheng, G. D., Guo, D. X., The future thermal regime of numerical simulating permafrost on Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau, China, under climate warming, Science in China, Ser. D, 1996, 39(4): 434–441.
Wang, J. C., Li, S. D., Analysis of geothermal conditions near the permafrost base along the Qinghai-Xizang Highway, in Professional Papers on Permafrost Studies of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (in Chinese), Beijing: Science Press, 1983, 38–43.
Computational Mathematics Group of Mathematics Dept., Nanking Univ., Numerical Solutions of Partial Differential Equation (in Chinese), Beijing: Science Press, 1979, 70–75.
IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Scientific Basis, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001, 1–79.
Qin, D. H., Ding, Y. H., Wang, S. W. et al., A study of environment change and its impacts in Western China, Earth Science Frontiers (in Chinese), 2002, 9(2): 321–328.
Cheng, G. D., Wang, S. L., On the zonation of high-altitude permafrost in China, Journal of Glaciology and Cryopedology (in Chinese), 1982, 4(2): 1–17.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Nan, Z., Li, S. & Cheng, G. Prediction of permafrost distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the next 50 and 100 years. Sci. China Ser. D-Earth Sci. 48, 797–804 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1360/03yd0258
Received:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1360/03yd0258