Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Child care availability and first-birth timing in Norway

  • Published:
Demography

Abstract

Both sociological and economic theories posit that widely available, high-quality, and affordable child care should have pronatalist effects. Yet to date, the empirical evidence has not consistently supported this hypothesis. We argue that this previous empirical work has been plagued by the inability to control for endogenous placement of day care centers and the possibility that people migrate to take advantage of the availability of child care facilities. Using Norwegian register data and a statistically defensible fixed-effects model, we find strong positive effects of day care availability on the transition to motherhood.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ahn, N. and P. Mira. 1999. “A Note on the Changing Relationship Between Fertility and Female Employment Rates in Developed Countries.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, March 25-27, New York.

  • Andersson, G., A.-Z. Duvander, and K. Hank. 2004. “Do Child Care Characteristics Influence Continued Childbearing in Sweden? An Investigation of Quantity, Quality, and Price Dimension.” Journal of European Social Policy 14:407–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Angeles, G., D.K. Guilkey, and T.A. Mroz. 1998. “Purposive Program Placement and the Estimation of Program Effects: The Impact of Family Planning Programs in Tanzania.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 93:884–99.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —. 2005. “The Impact of Community Level Variables on Individual Level Outcomes: Theoretical Results and Applications.” Sociological Methods and Research 34:76–121.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Asplan-Viak. 2005. “Analyse av barnehagetall pr 20.09.2005” [Analyses of Day Care Numbers, 20 September 2005] Arbeidsrapporter Oktober 2005_v5. Oslo.

  • Becker, G.S. 1960. “An Economic Analysis of Fertility.” Pp. 209–31 in Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Becker, G.S. and H.G. Lewis. 1973. “On the Interaction Between the Quantity and Quality of Children.” Journal of Political Economy 81(2, part 2):S279-S288.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bernhardt, E.M. 1993. “Fertility and Employment.” European Sociological Review 9(1):25–42.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bettio, F. and P. Villa. 1998. “A Mediterranean Perspective on the Breakdown of the Relationship Between Participation and Fertility.” Cambridge Journal of Economics 22:137–71.

    Google Scholar 

  • Billari, F.C. and H.-P. Kohler. 2004. “Patterns of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe.” Population Studies 58(2):161–76.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Black, S.E. 1999. “Do Better Schools Matter? Parental Valuation of Elementary Education.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 114:577–99.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blake, J. 1965. “Demographic Science and the Redirection of Population Policy.” Journal of Chronic Disease 18:1181–200.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blau, D.M. and P.K. Robins. 1988. “Childcare Costs and Family Labor Supply.” Review of Economics and Statistics 70:374–81.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —. 1989. “Fertility, Employment and Child-Care Costs.” Demography 26:287–99.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bogart, W.T. and B.A. Cromwell. 1997. “How Much More Is a Good School District Worth?” National Tax Journal 50(2):215–32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts, J. and R.G. Potter. 1983. Fertility, Biology and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brasington, D.M. 1999. “Which Measures of School Quality Does the Housing Market Value?” Journal of Real Estate Research 18:395–413.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brewster, K. and R.R. Rindfuss. 2000. “Fertility and Women’s Employment in Industrialized Countries.” Annual Review of Sociology 26:271–96.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bumpass, L.L. and E.K. Mburugu. 1977. “Age at Marriage and Completed Fertility.” Social Biology 24(1):31–37.

    Google Scholar 

  • Butz, W.P. and M.P. Ward. 1979. “The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility.” American Economic Review 69:318–28.

    Google Scholar 

  • Caldwell, J.C. and T. Schindlmayr. 2003. “Explanations of the Fertility Crisis in Modern Societies: A Search for Commonalities.” Population Studies 57:242–63.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cameron, A.C. and P.K. Trivedi. 2005. Micoreconometrics: Methods and Applications. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Del Boca, D. 2002. “The Effect of Child Care and Part-Time Opportunities on Participation and Fertility Decisions in Italy.” Journal of Population Economics 15:549–73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Demeny, P. 1986. “Pronatalist Policies in Low-Fertility Countries: Patterns, Performance, and Prospects.” Population and Development Review 12(Suppl.):335–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —. 2003. “Population Policy Dilemmas in Europe at the Dawn of the Twenty-first Century.” Population and Development Review 29:1–28.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Downes, T. and J. Zabel. 2002. “The Impact of School Characteristics on House Prices: Chicago 1987–1991.” Journal of Urban Economics 22:1–25.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elder, G.H., Jr. 2003. “The Life Course in Time and Place.” Pp. 57–71 in Sequences, Institutions, and Interrelationships Over the Life Course, edited by W.R. Heinz and V.W. Marshall. New York: Aldine de Gruyter.

    Google Scholar 

  • Esping-Anderson, G. 1990. The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Cambridge: Polity Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • —. 1999. Social Foundations of Postindustrial Economies. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Folbre, N. 1997. “The Future of the Elephant Bird.” Population and Development Review 23:647–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —. 2001. The Divisible Heart: Economics and Family Values. New York: The New Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gauthier, A.H. 2002. “Family Policies in Industrialized Countries: Is There a Convergence?” Population (English ed.) 57:447–74.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gerson, J.M. and R.E. Kraut 1988. “Clerical Work at Home or in the Office: The Difference It Makes.” Pp. 48–64 in The New Era of Homework: Directions and Responsibilities, edited by K. Christensen. Boulder: Westview Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gertler, P. and J.W. Molyneaux. 1994. “How Economic Development and Family Planning Programs Combined to Reduce Indonesian Fertility.” Demography 31:33–63.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gustafsson, S. and F. Stafford. 1991. “Child Care Subsidies and Labor Supply in Sweden.” Journal of Human Resources 27(1):204–30.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Håkonsen, L., T. Kornstad, K. Løyland, and T. Thorsen. 2003. “Politikken Overfor Familier med Førskolebarn—Noen Veivalg” [Policies on families with preschool children—Some options] Økonomiske Analyser 5/2003. Statistics Norway, Oslo-Kongsvinger.

  • Happel, S.K., J.K. Hill, and S.A. Low. 1984. “An Economic Analysis of the Timing of Childbirth.” Population Studies 38:299–311.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hank, K. and M. Kreyenfeld. 2003. “A Multilevel Analysis of Child Care and Women’s Fertility Decisions in Western Germany.” Journal of Marriage and Family 65:584–96.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayes, K. and J. Taylor. 1996. “Neighborhood School Characteristics: What Signals Quality to Homebuyers?” Economic Review Q IV:2–9.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heckman, J. and B. Singer. 1984. “A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data.” Econometrica 52:271–320.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kogel, T. 2004. “Did the Association Between Fertility and Female Employment Within OECD Countries Really Change Its Sign?” Journal of Population Economics 17:45–65.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kohler, H.-P., F.C. Billari, and J.A. Ortega. 2002. “The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s.” Population and Development Review 28:641–80.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kravdal, Ø. 1994. “The Importance of Economic Activity, Economic Potential and Economic Resources for the Timing of First Births in Norway.” Population Studies 48:249–67.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —. 1996. “How the Local Supply of Day-care Centers Influences Fertility in Norway: A Parity-Specific Approach.” Population Research and Policy Review 15:201–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lehrer, E. and S. Kawasaki. 1985. “Child Care Arrangements and Fertility: An Analysis of Two-Earner Households.” Demography 22:499–513.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lunde, A.S., S. Lundeborg, G.S. Lettenstrom, L. Thygesen, and J. Huebner. 1980. “The Person-Number Systems of Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Israel.” Vital and Health Statistics, Series 2, No. 84. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marini, M.M. and P.J. Hodson. 1981. “Effects of the Timing of Marriage and First Birth on the Spacing of Subsequent Births.” Demography 18:529–48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mason, K.O. and K. Kuhlthau. 1992. “The Perceived Impact of Child Care Costs on Women’s Labor Supply Fertility.” Demography 29:523–43.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McDonald, P. 2000. “Gender Equity Theories of Fertility Transition.” Population and Development Review 26:427–39.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, S.P. 2003. “Is Low Fertility a Twenty-First-Century Demographic Crisis?” Demography 40:589–603.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, S.P. and R.R. Rindfuss. 1999. “Reexamining the Link of Early Childbearing to Marriage and to Subsequent Fertility.” Demography 36:59–75.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, S.P. and M. Taylor. 2006. “Low Fertility in the 21st Century.” Annual Review of Sociology 32:375–400.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mortimer, J.T. and M.J. Shanahan. 2003. Handbook of the Life Course. New York: Plenum.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Myrdal, A. 1941. Nation and Family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pinnelli, A. 1995. “Women’s Condition, Low Fertility, and Emerging Union Patterns in Europe.” Pp. 82–101 in Gender and Fertility Change in Industrialized Countries, edited by K.O. Mason and A.M. Jensen. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pitt, M.M., M.R. Rosenzweig, and D.M. Gibbons. 1993. “The Determinants and Consequences of the Placement of Government Programs in Indonesia.” The World Bank Economic Review 7:319–48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Presser H.B. and W. Baldwin. 1980. “Child Care as a Constraint on Employment: Prevalence, Correlates, and Bearing on the Work and Fertility Nexus.” American Journal of Sociology 85: 1202–13.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rauan, E.C. 2006. “Undersøking om foreldrebetaling i barnehager, januar 2006” [Investigation of Parents’ Payment for Day Care]. Notater 2006/32. Statistics Norway, Oslo-Kongsvinger.

  • Rindfuss, R.R. 1991. “The Young Adult Years: Diversity, Structural Change, and Fertility.” Demography 28:493–512.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rindfuss, R.R. and K.L. Brewster. 1996. “Childrearing and Fertility.” Pp. 258-89 in Fertility in the United States: New Patterns, New Theories, edited by J.B. Casterline, R.D. Lee, and K.A. Foote. A supplement to Population and Development Review, Vol. 22.

  • Rindfuss, R.R., K.B. Guzzo, and S.P. Morgan. 2003. “The Changing Institutional Context of Low Fertility.” Population Research and Policy Review 22:411–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rindfuss, R.R., S.P. Morgan, and K. Offutt. 1996. “Education and the Changing Age Pattern of American Fertility: 1963–89.” Demography 33:277–90.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rindfuss, R.R., S.P. Morgan, and C.G. Swicegood. 1988. First Births in America: Changes in the Timing of Parenthood. Berkeley: University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rønsen, M. 2004. “Fertility and Public Policies—Evidence From Norway and Finland.” Demographic Research Vol. 10, Article 6. Available online at http://demographic-research.org/volumes/ vol10/6/10-6.pdf

  • Rosenfeld, R.A. 1996. “Women’s Work Histories.” Pp 199-222 in Fertility in the United States: New Patterns, New Theories, edited by J.B. Casterline, R.D. Lee, and K.A. Foote. A supplement to Population and Development Review, Vol. 22.

  • Rosenzweig, M.R. and K.I. Wolpin. 1986. “Evaluating the Effects of Optimally Distributed Public Programs: Child Health and Family Planning Interventions.” The American Economic Review 76:470–82.

    Google Scholar 

  • —. 1988. “Migration Selectivity and the Effects of Public Programs.” Journal of Public Economics 37:265–89.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santow, G. and M. Bracher. 2001. “Deferment of First Birth and Fluctuating Fertility in Sweden.” European Journal of Population 17:343–63.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schultz, T.P. 1988. ”Heterogeneous Preferences and Migration: Self-Selection, Regional Prices and Programs, and the Behavior of Migrants in Columbia.” Pp. 163–81 in Research in Population Economics, Vol. 6, edited by T.P. Schultz. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Statistics Norway. 2007. “Population Statistics. Births, 2005 Centralization of Births.” Available online at http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/02/02/10/fodte_en

  • Stolzenberg, R.M. 1979. “The Measurement and Decomposition of Causal Effects in Nonlinear and Nonadditive Models.” Pp. 4459–88 in Sociological Methodology 1980, edited by K.F. Schuessler. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stycos, J.M. and R.H. Weller. 1967. “Female Working Roles and Fertility.” Demography 4:210–17.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sundström, M. and F. Stafford. 1992. “Female Labor Force Participation, Fertility and Public Policy.” European Journal of Population 8:199–215.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Todd, P. 2006. “Evaluating Social Programs With Endogenous Program Placement and Selection of the Treated.” Unpublished manuscript. Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

  • Veevers, J.E. 1973. “Voluntary Childless Wives: An Exploratory Study.” Sociology and Social Research 57: 356–66.

    Google Scholar 

  • —. 1979. “Voluntary Childlessness: A Review of Issues and Evidence.” Marriage and Family Review 2(2):3–26.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisberg, H.F. 2005. The Total Survey Error Approach. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wenk, D. and R.A. Rosenfeld. 1992. “Women’s Employment Exit and Re-entry: Job Leaving Reasons and Their Consequences.” Research in Social Stratification and Mobility 11:127–50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wooldridge, J.M. 2002. Econometric Analysis of Cross Sectional and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Sociology Department, University of North Carolina, Norway

    Ronald R. Rindfuss

  2. East-West Center, USA

    Ronald R. Rindfuss

  3. Economics Department, University of North Carolina, USA

    David Guilkey

  4. Department of Sociology, Duke University, USA

    S. Philip Morgan

  5. Economics Department, University of Oslo, USA

    Øystein Kravdal

  6. Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, USA

    Karen Benjamin Guzzo

Authors
  1. Ronald R. Rindfuss
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. David Guilkey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. S. Philip Morgan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Øystein Kravdal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Karen Benjamin Guzzo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ronald R. Rindfuss.

Additional information

The analyses reported here were partially supported by a grant from NICHD to the Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina (RO1-HD038373). Rindfuss and Kravdal were supported by the Centre for Advanced Study at the Norwegian Academy of Science when work on this article was in its final stage. Thanks to Statistics Norway, especially Halvor Strømme and Kåre Vassenden, for making the data available to us. Erika Stone provided excellent programming assistance.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Rindfuss, R.R., Guilkey, D., Morgan, S.P. et al. Child care availability and first-birth timing in Norway. Demography 44, 345–372 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2007.0017

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2007.0017

Keywords

Search

Navigation