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Forecasting enrollments for immigrant entry-port school districts

  • Applications of DemoGraphic Models
  • Published:
Demography

Abstract

This paper projects school enrollments in Santa Ana, California and evaluates the accuracy of the projections. It emphasizes the distinctive aspects of a local setting undergoing substantial immigrant influx and highlights the uncertainties that must be addressed. I adapt existing forecasting approaches to such local situations, match assumptions to future unknowns, and devise “early warning” thresholds keyed to timely decision making. This hybrid approach offers forecasters a useful point of departure in local settings dominated by wide margins of uncertainty and inherently risky assumptions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. RAND, 1700 Main St., 90407, Santa Monica, CA

    Peter A. Morrison

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  1. Peter A. Morrison
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Morrison, P.A. Forecasting enrollments for immigrant entry-port school districts. Demography 37, 499–510 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2000.0009

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