Annals of Surgical Oncology

, Volume 22, Issue 12, pp 3881–3887 | Cite as

Validation of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Nomogram to Predict Overall Survival After Curative Colectomy in a Chinese Colon Cancer Population

  • Maoxing Liu
  • Hong Qu
  • Zhaode Bu
  • Donglai Chen
  • Beihai Jiang
  • Ming Cui
  • Jiadi Xing
  • Hong Yang
  • Zaozao Wang
  • Jiabo Di
  • Lei Chen
  • Chenghai Zhang
  • Zhendan Yao
  • Nan Zhang
  • Fei Tan
  • Jin Gu
  • Ziyu Li
  • Xiangqian Su
Colorectal Cancer

Abstract

Background

Colon cancer nomogram designed by Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) is an online prediction tool to predict overall survival for individual patient after curative resection. However, this model was never externally validated. We evaluated the accuracy of this nomogram in an independent external Chinese cohort.

Methods

Clinical data from 1005 patients who underwent primary curative-intent surgery at Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute between 1996 and 2008 were used for external validation. Clinicopathologic characteristics and the performance of the MSKCC nomogram for prediction of overall survival were evaluated for 985 patients with complete data by using concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot.

Results

The C-index for the MSKCC nomogram was 0.71 in the Chinese cohort, compared with 0.67 for American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage (P < .0001). This suggests that the nomogram discriminates overall survival better than AJCC staging system. Calibration plot showed a good calibration of the nomogram in the validation cohort. Furthermore, the MSKCC nomogram prediction illustrated the heterogeneity for survival of Chinese patients within each AJCC stage.

Conclusions

The MSKCC nomogram for colon cancer provides more accurate survival predictions than the AJCC staging system when applied to an external Chinese cohort. The MSKCC nomogram improved individualized prediction of survival and may aid in more accurate patient counseling, selection of various treatment options, and follow-up scheduling.

Keywords

Colon Cancer Calibration Plot Concordance Index Survival Prediction Chinese Cohort 

Notes

Acknowledgment

This study was supported by the grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81272766, No. 31171270, No. 81450028, No. 81470129, and No. 81402346), the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, No. 2014AA020603), Clinical Characteristics and Application Research of Capital (Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission No. Z121107001012130), Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals Clinical Medicine Development of Special Funding Support (No. XM201309, No. ZY201410), Peking University (PKU) 985 Special Funding for Collaborative Research with PKU Hospitals (To Xiangqian Su and Fan Bai), Seeding Grant for Medicine and Life Sciences of Peking University(2014-MB-04), Beijing Natural Science Foundation (No. 7132054), the Beijing Nova Program (Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission No. Z111102054511075, 2011060), Program for Excellent Talents in Beijing (No. 2013D003034000009), the Excellent Overseas-Returnee Scholar Program (Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, to Jiabo Di), Science Foundation of Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute (No. 2014-14).

Supplementary material

10434_2015_4495_MOESM1_ESM.doc (82 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOC 82 kb)
10434_2015_4495_MOESM2_ESM.doc (50 kb)
Supplementary material 2 (DOC 49 kb)

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Copyright information

© Society of Surgical Oncology 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Maoxing Liu
    • 1
  • Hong Qu
    • 2
  • Zhaode Bu
    • 3
  • Donglai Chen
    • 4
  • Beihai Jiang
    • 1
  • Ming Cui
    • 1
  • Jiadi Xing
    • 1
  • Hong Yang
    • 1
  • Zaozao Wang
    • 1
  • Jiabo Di
    • 1
  • Lei Chen
    • 1
  • Chenghai Zhang
    • 1
  • Zhendan Yao
    • 1
  • Nan Zhang
    • 1
  • Fei Tan
    • 1
  • Jin Gu
    • 5
  • Ziyu Li
    • 6
  • Xiangqian Su
    • 1
  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Department of Minimally Invasive Gastrointestinal SurgeryPeking University Cancer Hospital & InstituteBeijingChina
  2. 2.Center for Bioinformatics, State Key Laboratory of Protein and Plant Gene Research, College of Life SciencesPeking UniversityBeijingChina
  3. 3.Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery IIPeking University Cancer Hospital & InstituteBeijingChina
  4. 4.Department of StatisticsPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA
  5. 5.Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Department of Colorectal SurgeryPeking University Cancer Hospital & InstituteBeijingChina
  6. 6.Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Department of Gastrointestinal SurgeryPeking University Cancer Hospital & InstituteBeijingChina

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