Validation of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Nomogram to Predict Overall Survival After Curative Colectomy in a Chinese Colon Cancer Population
Colon cancer nomogram designed by Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) is an online prediction tool to predict overall survival for individual patient after curative resection. However, this model was never externally validated. We evaluated the accuracy of this nomogram in an independent external Chinese cohort.
Clinical data from 1005 patients who underwent primary curative-intent surgery at Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute between 1996 and 2008 were used for external validation. Clinicopathologic characteristics and the performance of the MSKCC nomogram for prediction of overall survival were evaluated for 985 patients with complete data by using concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot.
The C-index for the MSKCC nomogram was 0.71 in the Chinese cohort, compared with 0.67 for American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage (P < .0001). This suggests that the nomogram discriminates overall survival better than AJCC staging system. Calibration plot showed a good calibration of the nomogram in the validation cohort. Furthermore, the MSKCC nomogram prediction illustrated the heterogeneity for survival of Chinese patients within each AJCC stage.
The MSKCC nomogram for colon cancer provides more accurate survival predictions than the AJCC staging system when applied to an external Chinese cohort. The MSKCC nomogram improved individualized prediction of survival and may aid in more accurate patient counseling, selection of various treatment options, and follow-up scheduling.
KeywordsColon Cancer Calibration Plot Concordance Index Survival Prediction Chinese Cohort
This study was supported by the grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81272766, No. 31171270, No. 81450028, No. 81470129, and No. 81402346), the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, No. 2014AA020603), Clinical Characteristics and Application Research of Capital (Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission No. Z121107001012130), Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals Clinical Medicine Development of Special Funding Support (No. XM201309, No. ZY201410), Peking University (PKU) 985 Special Funding for Collaborative Research with PKU Hospitals (To Xiangqian Su and Fan Bai), Seeding Grant for Medicine and Life Sciences of Peking University(2014-MB-04), Beijing Natural Science Foundation (No. 7132054), the Beijing Nova Program (Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission No. Z111102054511075, 2011060), Program for Excellent Talents in Beijing (No. 2013D003034000009), the Excellent Overseas-Returnee Scholar Program (Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, to Jiabo Di), Science Foundation of Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute (No. 2014-14).
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