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Natural History of Gastric Cancer: Observational Study of Gastric Cancer Patients Not Treated During Follow-Up

  • Seung-Young Oh
  • Jeong-Hwan Lee
  • Hyuk-Joon LeeEmail author
  • Tae Han Kim
  • Yeon-Ju Huh
  • Hye-Seong Ahn
  • Yun-Suhk Suh
  • Seong-Ho Kong
  • Ga Hee Kim
  • Su Joa Ahn
  • Se Hyung Kim
  • Yunhee Choi
  • Han-Kwang Yang
Gastrointestinal Oncology
  • 56 Downloads

Abstract

Background

Understanding the natural progression of untreated gastric cancer is critical for determining the disease prognosis as well as treatment options and timing. The aim of this study is to analyze the natural history of gastric cancer.

Patients and Methods

We included patients with gastric cancer who had not received any treatment and were staged using endoscopy/endoscopic ultrasonography and computed tomography on at least two follow-up visits during intervals of nontreatment. Tumor volumes were also measured in addition to the staging. Survival of each stage at diagnosis was also analyzed.

Results

A total of 101 patients were included. The mean follow-up period was 35.1 ± 34.4 months. The gastric cancer doubling time was 11.8 months for T1 and 6.2 months for T4. The progression time from early gastric cancer to advanced gastric cancer was 34 months. It decreased as the stages advanced: from 34 months between tumor-nodes-metastasis stage I and II to 1.8 months between stage III and IV. No variable was identified as a risk factor for cancer progression. The 5-year survival rates of untreated patients were 46.2% in stage I and 0% in stage II, stage III, and stage IV.

Conclusions

The progression and doubling times of gastric cancer shorten as the stages advance. Objective data reported in this study can be a critical factor in determining treatment timing and screening interval.

Keywords

Gastric cancer Natural history Progression Doubling time Survival benefit 

Notes

Acknowledgement

Statistical analysis was performed by the Medical Research Collaborating Center of SNUH.

Disclosure

None.

Supplementary material

10434_2019_7455_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (244 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (PDF 244 kb)

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Copyright information

© Society of Surgical Oncology 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Seung-Young Oh
    • 1
    • 2
  • Jeong-Hwan Lee
    • 1
  • Hyuk-Joon Lee
    • 1
    • 3
    Email author
  • Tae Han Kim
    • 1
    • 4
  • Yeon-Ju Huh
    • 1
    • 5
  • Hye-Seong Ahn
    • 6
  • Yun-Suhk Suh
    • 1
  • Seong-Ho Kong
    • 1
  • Ga Hee Kim
    • 7
    • 8
  • Su Joa Ahn
    • 9
  • Se Hyung Kim
    • 9
  • Yunhee Choi
    • 10
  • Han-Kwang Yang
    • 1
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of SurgerySeoul National University College of MedicineSeoulKorea
  2. 2.Critical Care CenterSeoul National University HospitalSeoulKorea
  3. 3.Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of MedicineSeoulKorea
  4. 4.Department of Surgery, Gyeongsang National University College of MedicineGyeongsang National University Changwon HospitalChangwonKorea
  5. 5.Departmemt of SurgeryEwha Womans University Mokdong HospitalSeoulKorea
  6. 6.Department of SurgerySeoul National University Boramae Medical CenterSeoulKorea
  7. 7.Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University College of MedicineSeoulKorea
  8. 8.Department of Gastroenterology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical CenterAsan Digestive Disease Research InstituteSeoulKorea
  9. 9.Department of RadiologySeoul National University College of MedicineSeoulKorea
  10. 10.Medical Research Collaborating CenterSeoul National University College of MedicineSeoulKorea

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