Advertisement

Mountains, valleys, and rivers: The transmission of raccoon rabies over a heterogeneous landscape

Article

Abstract

Landscape features may serve as either barriers or gateways to the spread of certain infectious diseases, and understanding the way geographic structure impacts disease spread could lead to improved containment strategies. Here, we focus on the spacetime diffusion of a raccoon rabies outbreak across several states in the Eastern United States. While focusing on pattern, we move toward closer links between pattern and process by considering statistical estimation of local pattern features to gain insight on landscape influences on the underlying process. Specifically, we quantify the impact that landscape features, such as mountains and rivers, have on the speed of infectious disease diffusion. This work combines statistical modeling with operations in a geographic information system (GIS) to link observed patterns of disease diffusion with local landscape values. We explore three analytic approaches. First, we use spatial prediction (kriging) to provide a descriptive pattern of the spread of the virus. Second, we use Bayesian areal wombling to detect barriers for infectious disease transmission and examine spatial coincidence with potential features. Finally, we input landscape variables into a hierarchical Bayesian model with spatially varying coefficients to obtain model-based estimates of their local impacts on transmission time in counties.

Key Words

GIS Hierarchical Bayesian models Infectious disease Landscape ecology Spatial statistics Wombling 

References

  1. Aguirre, A., Ostfeld, R., Tabor, G., House, C., and Pearl, M. (2002), Conservation Medicine: Ecological Health in Practice, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  2. Banerjee, S., Carlin, B. P., and Gelfand, A. E. (2004), Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data, Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC.MATHGoogle Scholar
  3. Besag, J., and Kooperberg, C. (1995), /ldOn Conditional and Intrinsic Autoregressions,/rd Biometrika, 82, 733–746.MATHMathSciNetGoogle Scholar
  4. Besag, J., York, J., and Mollie, A. (1991), /ldBayesian Image Restoration, with Two Applications in Spatial Statistics/rd (with discussion), Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 43, 1–59.MATHCrossRefMathSciNetGoogle Scholar
  5. Biek, R., Henderson, J. C., Waller, L. A., Rupprecht, C. E., and Real, L. A. (2007), /ldA High-resolution Genetic Signature of Demographic and Spatial Expansion in Epizootic Rabies Virus,/rd Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences of the USA, 104, 7993–7998.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Cressie, N. (1993), Statistics for Spatial Data (revised ed.), New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  7. ESRI (2005), ArcGIS 9.1 Users Guide. Google Scholar
  8. Fortin, M. J., and Dale, M. (2005), Spatial Analysis: A Guide for Ecologists, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  9. Gelfand, A. E., Kim, H., Sirmans, C. F., and Banerjee, S. (2003), /ldSpatial Modeling with Spatially Varying Coefficient Processes,/rd Journal of the American Statistical Association, 98, 387–396.MATHCrossRefMathSciNetGoogle Scholar
  10. Guerra, M., Curns, A., Rupprecht, C., Hanlon, C., Krebs, J., and Childs, J. (2003), /ldSkunk and Raccoon Rabies in the Eastern United States: Temporal and Spatial Analysis,/rd Emerging Infectious Diseases, 9, 1143–1150.Google Scholar
  11. Hochachka, W. M., Caruana, R., Fink, D., Munson, A., Riedewald, M., Sorokina, D., and Kelling, S. (2006), /ldData-mining Discovery of Pattern and Process in Ecological Systems,/rd Journal of Wildlife Management, 71, 2427–2437.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Johnston, K., Ver Hoef, J., Krivoruchko, K., and Lucas, N. (2001), Using ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst, Redlands, CA: ESRI Press.Google Scholar
  13. Knorr-Held, L., and Raber, G. (2000), /ldBayesian Detection of Clusters and Discontinuities in Disease Maps,/rd Biometrics, 56, 13–21.MATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Krebs, J., Long-Marin, S., and Childs, J. (1998), /ldCauses, Costs and Estimates of Rabies Postexposure Prophylaxis Treatments in the United States,/rd Journal of Public Health Management and Practice, 4, 56–62.Google Scholar
  15. Lu, H., and Carlin, B. P. (2005), /ldBayesian Areal Wombling for Geographical Boundary Analysis,/rd Geographical Analysis, 37, 265–285.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Lu, H., Reilly, C. S., Banerjee, S., and Carlin, B. P. (2007), /ldBayesian Areal Wombling via Adjacency Modeling,/rd Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 14, 433–452.CrossRefMathSciNetGoogle Scholar
  17. Ma, H., and Carlin, B. P. (2006), /ldBayesian Multivariate Areal Wombling for Multiple Disease Boundary Analysis,/rd Bayesian Analysis, 2, 281–302.MathSciNetGoogle Scholar
  18. Manel, S., Schwartz, M., Luikart, G., and Taberlet, P. (2003), /ldLandscape Genetics: Combining Landscape Ecology and Population Genetics,/rd Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 18, 189–197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Ostfeld, R., Glass, G., and Keesing, F. (2005), /ldSpatial Epidemiology: An Emerging (or Re-emerging) Discipline,/rd Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 20, 328–336.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Paulousky, E. N. (1966), Natural Nidality of Transmissible Diseases: With Special Reference to the Landscape Epidemiology of Zooanthroponoses, Urbana: University of Illinois Press.Google Scholar
  21. Real, L. A., and McElhany, P. (1996), /ldSpatial Pattern and Process in Plant-pathogen Interactions,/rd Ecology, 77, 1011–1025.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Recuenco, S., Eidson, M., Kulldorff, M., Johnson, G., and Cherry, B. (2007), /ldSpatial and Temporal Patterns of Enzootic Raccoon Rabies Adjusted for Multiple Covariates,/rd International Journal of Health Geographics, 6, 14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Russell, C., Smith, D., Waller, L. A., Childs, J., and Real, L. A. (2004), /ldA Priori Prediction of Disease Invasion Dynamics in a Novel Environment,/rd Proceedings of the Royal Society: Biological Sciences, 271, 1534, 21–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Silverstein, M., Salgado, C., Bassin, D., Bleck, T., Lopes, M., Farr, B., Jenkins, S., Sockwell, D., Marr, J., and Miller, G. (2003), /ldFirst Human Death Associated with Raccoon Rabies, Virginia, 2003,/rd Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 52, 1102–1103.Google Scholar
  25. Smith, D., Lucey, B., Waller, L. A., Childs, J., and Real, L. A. (2002), /ldPredicting the Spatial Dynamics of Rabies Epidemics on Heterogeneous Landscapes,/rd Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 99, 3668–3672.Google Scholar
  26. Spiegelhalter, D. J., Best, N. G., Carlin, B. P., and van der Linde, A. (2002), /ldBayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit/rd (with Discussion), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 64, 583–640.MATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Spiegelhalter, D., Thomas, A., Best, N., and Lunn, D. (2003), WinBUGS Users Manual, Version 1.4. Google Scholar
  28. Thomas, A., Best, N., Lunn, D., Arnold, R., and Spiegelhalter, D. (2004), GeoBUGS User Manual, Version 1.2. Google Scholar
  29. Turner, M. G. (2005a), /ldLandscape Ecology in North America: Past, Present, and Future,/rd Ecology, 86, 1967–1974.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Turner, M. G. (2005b), /ldLandscape Ecology: What is the State of the Science?,/rd Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 36, 319–344.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Waller, L. A., and Gotway C. (2004), Applied Spatial Statistics for Public Health Data, New York: Wiley.MATHCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Womble, W. H. (1951), /ldDifferential Systematics,/rd Science, 114, 315–322.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© International Biometric Society 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Cancer InstituteRockville
  2. 2.Department of BiostatisticsEmory UniversityAtlanta

Personalised recommendations