|
Recession
|
Expansion
|
Expansion
|
Recesion
|
---|
|
Unemp. high
|
Test
|
Unemp. high
|
Test
|
Unemp. low
|
Test
|
Unemp. low
|
Test
|
---|
|
(1)
|
1 = 2
|
(2)
|
2 = 3
|
(3)
|
3 = 4
|
(4)
|
4 = 1
|
---|
Permanent (a)
|
−0.207***
|
***
|
−0.345***
|
***
|
−0.466***
|
***
|
−0.209**
|
no
|
|
(0.041)
| |
(0.044)
| |
(0.071)
| |
(0.070)
| |
Test a = b
|
***
| |
***
| |
no
| |
**
| |
Fixed-term (b)
|
−0.431***
|
***
|
−0.520***
|
*
|
−0.587***
|
***
|
−0.414***
|
no
|
|
(0.043)
| |
(0.046)
| |
(0.074)
| |
(0.072)
| |
- ***Significant at the 1 percent level.
- **Significant at the 5 percent level.
- *Significant at the 10 percent level.
- no: Non-significant.