# Table 3 Real wage cyclicality by tenure groups: 4 scenarios

Recession Expansion Expansion Recesion
Unemp. high Test Unemp. high Test Unemp. low Test Unemp. low Test
(1) 1 = 2 (2) 2 = 3 (3) 3 = 4 (4) 4 = 1
New hires (a) −0.416*** *** −0.548*** ** −0.649*** *** −0.408*** no
(0.045)   (0.048)   (0.079)   (0.077)
Test a = b no   no   no   no
Job movers (b) −0.333*** *** −0.484*** no −0.533*** *** −0.315*** no
(0.044)   (0.047)   (0.076)   (0.075)
Test a = c no   no   no   no
Tenure 1–2 (c) −0.350*** *** −0.486*** ** −0.584*** *** −0.282*** no
(0.047)   (0.051)   (0.083)   (0.081)
Test a = d **   no   no   no
Tenure 2–4 (d) −0.274*** *** −0.456*** *** −0.599*** *** −0.267** no
(0.047)   (0.051)   (0.083)   (0.082)
Test a = e ***   **   no   no
Tenure 4–6 (e) −0.237*** *** −0.381*** *** −0.533*** *** −0.298*** no
(0.040)   (0.043)   (0.070)   (0.068)
Test a = f ***   ***   ***   **
Tenure 6+ (f) −0.130*** *** −0.253*** *** −0.333*** *** −0.134* no
(0.033)   (0.036)   (0.058)   (0.057)
1. ***Significant at the 1 percent level.
2. **Significant at the 5 percent level.
3. *Significant at the 10 percent level.
4. no: Non-significant.