The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

Table 1 Model parameters. An overview of the key model parameter assumptions and their sources. Parameter ranges are those used in the sensitivity analyses

Parameter	Value (95% quantiles)	Source
Vaccine schedule	MCV1: 9 months MCV2: 18 months	[14]
Vaccine effectiveness (beta distributed)	MCV1: 85% (80–90%) +MCV2: 98% (95–100%) Combined effectiveness 93% (88–96%)	[15, 16]
Age-immunity profile in < 15 years old (bootstrapped from data)	Observed in 2019	[11]
Proportion immune among > 15 years old (beta distributed)	96% (90–99%)	[13]
Vaccine coverage August 2019 to March 2020 (assumed to be same as in 2018) (beta distributed)	MCV1: 79% (75–85%) MCV2: 45% (40–50%)	[9, 17, 18]
Vaccine coverage from April 2020	MCV1 and MCV2 0%, 15%, 50%, or 100% reduced	Assumption
R₀ measles (Log-normally distributed)	14 (12–18)	[19]
Reduction in contacts during COVID-19	50% (25% and 75%)	[20]
Age demographics	From KHDSS in 2019	[10]
Social mixing matrix	From 2011/12	[21]