Table 1 Model parameters. An overview of the key model parameter assumptions and their sources. Parameter ranges are those used in the sensitivity analyses

From: The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

Parameter Value (95% quantiles) Source
Vaccine schedule MCV1: 9 months
MCV2: 18 months
[14]
Vaccine effectiveness (beta distributed) MCV1: 85% (80–90%)
+MCV2: 98% (95–100%)
Combined effectiveness 93% (88–96%)
[15, 16]
Age-immunity profile in < 15 years old (bootstrapped from data) Observed in 2019 [11]
Proportion immune among > 15 years old (beta distributed) 96% (90–99%) [13]
Vaccine coverage August 2019 to March 2020 (assumed to be same as in 2018) (beta distributed) MCV1: 79% (75–85%)
MCV2: 45% (40–50%)
[9, 17, 18]
Vaccine coverage from April 2020 MCV1 and MCV2 0%, 15%, 50%, or 100% reduced Assumption
R0 measles (Log-normally distributed) 14 (12–18) [19]
Reduction in contacts during COVID-19 50% (25% and 75%) [20]
Age demographics From KHDSS in 2019 [10]
Social mixing matrix From 2011/12 [21]