Vaccine schedule
|
MCV1: 9 months
MCV2: 18 months
|
[14]
|
Vaccine effectiveness (beta distributed)
|
MCV1: 85% (80–90%)
+MCV2: 98% (95–100%)
Combined effectiveness 93% (88–96%)
|
[15, 16]
|
Age-immunity profile in < 15 years old (bootstrapped from data)
|
Observed in 2019
|
[11]
|
Proportion immune among > 15 years old (beta distributed)
|
96% (90–99%)
|
[13]
|
Vaccine coverage August 2019 to March 2020 (assumed to be same as in 2018) (beta distributed)
|
MCV1: 79% (75–85%)
MCV2: 45% (40–50%)
|
[9, 17, 18]
|
Vaccine coverage from April 2020
|
MCV1 and MCV2 0%, 15%, 50%, or 100% reduced
|
Assumption
|
R0 measles (Log-normally distributed)
|
14 (12–18)
|
[19]
|
Reduction in contacts during COVID-19
|
50% (25% and 75%)
|
[20]
|
Age demographics
|
From KHDSS in 2019
|
[10]
|
Social mixing matrix
|
From 2011/12
|
[21]
|