Fig. 3 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 3

From: The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

Fig. 3

Probability of a large measles outbreak sparked by a single infected individual. Outbreak probability was calculated using the predicted immunity and herd immunity threshold before (red) and during (green) COVID-19 movement restriction measures. Zero probability indicates no possibility of an outbreak. The bold lines and shaded region in each scenario, i.e. a. no reduction, b. 15% reduction, c. 50% reduction, and d. 100% reduction, indicate the median estimates of outbreak risk and the uncertainty quantified as the 95% quantiles of the bootstrap analysis. The risk of a large measles outbreak from the introduction of a single infectious individual increased quickly based on the level of impairment of routine vaccination coverage

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