Earth, Planets and Space

, Volume 51, Issue 1, pp 19–22 | Cite as

Forecast of the most geomagnetically disturbed days

  • V. M. Silbergleit
Open Access


Perturbed periods characterized by the AA* index compiled from 1868 to 1992 are considered. Our analysis of the geomagnetic activity is done by considering the even-odd effect, that was observed in the maximum solar activity and applying Gumbel’s first asymptotic distribution extreme values. The present study shows that the largest geomagnetically perturbed days should have different intensities depending on the parity of the solar cycles in which they occur.


Solar Cycle Geomagnetic Storm Geomagnetic Activity Maximum Solar Activity Disturbed Period 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


  1. Cliver, E. W., V. Boriakoff, and K. H. Bounar, The 22-year cycle of geomagnetic and solar wind activity, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 27091–27109, 1996.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Gumbel, E. J., Statistical theory of extreme values and some practical applications, Nat. Bur. Standards Appl. Math. Ser. 33, Washington D.C., 1954.Google Scholar
  3. Jenkinson, A. F., The frequency distribution of the annual maximum (or minimum) values of meteorological elements, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 158–171, 1955.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Krumbein, W. C. and J. Lieblein, Geological application of extreme-value methods to interpretation of cobbles and boulders in gravel deposits, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 37, 313–319, 1955.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Letfus, V., Prediction of the height of solar cycle 23, Solar Phys., 149, 405–411, 1994.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. O’Connor, P. D. T., Practical Reliability Engineering, 2nd Edition, pp. 34–100, J. Wiley & Sons, N.Y., 1988.Google Scholar
  7. Silbergleit, V. M., On the occurrence of geomagnetic storms with sudden commencements, J. Geomag. Geoelectr., 48, 1011–1016, 1996.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Siscoe, G. L., On the statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle, J. Geophys. Res., 81, 4782–4784, 1976.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Wilson, R. M., An early estimate for the size of Cycle 23, Solar Phys., 140, 181–193, 1992.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© The Society of Geomagnetism and Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences (SGEPSS); The Seismological Society of Japan; The Volcanological Society of Japan; The Geodetic Society of Japan; The Japanese Society for Planetary Sciences. 1999

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de IngenieriaUniversidad de Buenos Aires and CONICETArgentina

Personalised recommendations