Mathematical model of HIV-infection transmission and dynamics in the size of risk groups



The research is aimed at developing and studying the distribution model of the human immunity deficit virus (HIV) that includes dynamics in the formation of risk groups. Most of the HIV distribution models assume that the risk of infection does not change over the individual’s lifetime. This work, in contrast, proposes a model of virus transmission in a population with a dynamic risk. The risk dynamics are described by the model of the formation of groups of individuals with alcohol and drug dependence, which are the main factors influencing the spread of HIV in Russia.


mathematical model HIV risk groups estimation of parameters 


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© Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Federal Scientific Methodical Center (FSMC)Ministry of HealthMoscowRussia
  2. 2.Institute of Numerical MathematicsRussian Academy of SciencesMoscowRussia

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