Transmission channels of crisis situations in the Russian federation and their identification
The article identifies significant transmission channels of crisis situations in the Russian economy (based on the application of a Markov regime-switching model and the likelihood ratio test). A system of comprehensive crisis indicators has been developed that makes it possible to predict the probability of a crisis in the Russian Federation for one month, a quarter-year, and a half-year ahead.
KeywordsReal Exchange Rate RUSSIAN Economic Development Transmission Channel Crisis Situation Monetary Aggregate
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