Advertisement

Studies on Russian Economic Development

, Volume 24, Issue 6, pp 546–554 | Cite as

Scenario simulation of the demographic dynamics: The case of Volgograd oblast

  • Yu. V. Zaitseva
Social Problems
  • 23 Downloads

Abstract

This paper presents the results of scenario calculations of the demographic dynamics in Volgograd oblast up to 2050. The calculations were made by simulating the dependence of the gender and age structure of the population on the birth and death rates and the migration increment. The dynamics of the shares of the productive-age population, children, and pensioners, as well as of the coefficients of the dependency ratio according to the chosen scenario, are presented.

Keywords

Scenario Simulation RUSSIAN Economic Development Dependency Ratio Optimistic Scenario Pessimistic Scenario 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. 1.
  2. 2.
  3. 3.
  4. 4.
  5. 5.
    S. Yu. Nikitina and S. Ya. Shcherbov, “Probabilistic forecast of Russia’s population,” Vopr. Stat., No. 7 (2007).Google Scholar
  6. 6.
  7. 7.
    Statistical Yearbook of Volgograd Oblast, 2011. Stat. Territorial Branch of the Federal Government Statistic Service of Volgograd Oblast. Volgograd Volgagradstat, 2013. Statistical Yearbook, Volgograd oblast, Statistical Yearbook, Volgograd oblast, 2011. Stat. Reports. Territorial Body, Federal Service of Government Statistics on Volgograd Oblast (Volgogradstat, Volgograd, 2013) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Volgograd Oblast in Figures of 2011: Brief Stat. Collection (Volgogradstat, Volgograd, 2012) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Socioeconomic Situation of Volgograd Oblast in 2012: Report / Stat. Territorial Branch of the Federal State Statistic Service of Volgograd Oblast./Territorial Bodyof the Federal Service of Government Statistics on Volgograd Oblast (Volgogradstat, Volgograd, 2013) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  10. 10.

Copyright information

© Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yu. V. Zaitseva
    • 1
  1. 1.Volgograd State UniversityVolgogradRussia

Personalised recommendations