Doklady Earth Sciences

, Volume 479, Issue 2, pp 503–506 | Cite as

Changes in Surface Temperature in the Arctic: Accuracy of Model Reproduction and Probabilistic Prediction for the Near Future

Geophysics
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Abstract

The abilities of an ensemble of present-day global climate models are analyzed during modeling of evolution of the Arctic surface temperature over land including spatial consistency between the modeled and observed data. These results are the basis for probabilistic regional prediction of variation in the surface air temperature for the near future (2021–2040).

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Copyright information

© Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • P. V. Sporyshev
    • 1
  • V. M. Kattsov
    • 1
  • S. K. Gulev
    • 2
  1. 1.Voeikov Main Geophysical ObservatorySt. PetersburgRussia
  2. 2.Shirshov Institute of OceanologyRussian Academy of SciencesMoscowRussia

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