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Trends in Labor Productivity and Investment: Empirical Observations

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Abstract

Issues are discussed related to Russia’s political and economic objective to become one of the five major economies of the world. It is shown that the continuation of the existing trends in GDP should permit Russia to rise in the coming years from the sixth position to the fifth among the world nations in terms of GDP yet remain in this position only until the end of the 2020s. The authors believe that in the forecast period until 2024, an average annual growth rate of 3% in labor productivity is quite likely. This growth rate suggests better structural ratios for investment and productivity trends and a slightly higher rate of accumulation than at the beginning of the forecast period.

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Notes

  1. It should be noted that the resulting estimates largely depend on the chosen units of measurement; thus, one should clearly see the strengths and weaknesses of each of them. A conventional approach is that a comparative GDP estimate should take into account the purchasing power parity (PPP) [14].

  2. In relation to GDP growth, a similar indicator or its inverse is often used in the literature to calculate the so-called absolute efficiency of capital investments.

  3. For more details on E1,T, see, e.g., [3].

  4. When calculating this indicator, double normalization enables one to neutralize the economies of scale.

  5. The World Bank Information Database provides labor productivity data (GDP at 2010 prices) with reference to the International Labor Organization (ILO) since 1991.

  6. The comparability of conditions includes another requirement, namely, that the labor productivity in the baseline year and in the last year of the period hit the historical maxima. Unfortunately, in some cases this requirement is not observed. Since the deviations of the actual values from the historical maximum are relatively small, this fact has virtually no effect on the conclusions.

  7. According to the World Bank, its value in 2001–2017 was 2.2% in the world and 3.6% in Indonesia (in constant 2011 dollars at PPP).

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Funding

This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, project no. 26.2024.2017/4.6.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia

    B. L. Lavrovskii & E. A. Goryushkina

  2. Novosibirsk State Technical University, Novosibirsk, Russia

    B. L. Lavrovskii

  3. Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia

    E. A. Goryushkina

Authors
  1. B. L. Lavrovskii
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  2. E. A. Goryushkina
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to B. L. Lavrovskii or E. A. Goryushkina.

Additional information

Translated by A. Kobkova

Boris Leonidovich Lavrovskii, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), is a leading scientific researcher of the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, and a professor at Novosibirsk State Technical University. Ekaterina Alekseevna Goryushkina, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), is a scientific researcher at the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, and a docent of Novosibirsk State Technical University.

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Lavrovskii, B.L., Goryushkina, E.A. Trends in Labor Productivity and Investment: Empirical Observations. Her. Russ. Acad. Sci. 90, 266–272 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331620010086

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