Calculation of Long-Term Averages of Surface Air Temperature Based on Insolation Data
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The solar radiation coming to the Earth’s ellipsoid is considered without taking into account the atmosphere on the basis of the astronomical ephemerides for the time interval from 3000 BC to 3000 AD. Using the regression equations between the Earth’s insolation and near-surface air temperature, the insolation annual and semiannual climatic norms of near-surface air temperature for the Earth as a whole and the hemispheres are calculated in intervals of 30 years for the period from 2930 BC to 2930 AD with 100 and 900- to 1000-year time steps. The analysis shows that the annual insolation rates of the near-surface air temperature of the Earth and the hemispheres decrease at all intervals. The semiannual insolation rates of the near-surface air temperature increase in winter and decrease in summer. This means that the seasonal difference decreases. The annual and semiannual rates of insolation near-surface air temperature of the Earth increase in the equatorial and decrease in the polar regions; the latitudinal contrast increases. The interlatitudinal gradient is higher in the Southern Hemisphere. It practically does not change in winter and increases in summer, most strongly in the Southern Hemisphere.
Keywordsclimate change insolation surface air temperature celestial-mechanical processes interlatitudinal gradient
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