Abstract
A one-dimensional dynamic model of heat and moisture transfer in the soil has been developed. The use of the ERA-40 reanalysis as input data makes it possible to compute characteristics of the soil thermal and hydrological regimes, including watershed runoff, from specified climatic characteristics of the atmosphere. Results are presented of numerical experiments on a comparison of the model estimates of the depths of seasonal thawing with observations at several Siberian stations. For the latter half of the 20th century, the depths of seasonal thawing are mapped and runoff from watersheds of the largest Siberian rivers is computed. The model reproduces observed runoff variations. For the Ob basin, the model-derived runoff estimates agree well with observational data if peat deposits in the upper 2-m layer are taken into account.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
I. I. Mokhov and V. Ch. Khon, “Model Scenario of Siberian River Runoff Changes,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk 383, 684–687 (2002).
I. I. Mokhov, V. A. Semenov, and V. Ch. Khon, “Estimates of Possible Regional Hydrological Regime Changes in the 21st Century Based on Global Climate Models,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana 39, 150–165 (2003) [Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 39, 130–144 (2003).
V. P. Nechaev, “Some Relations between Permafrost and Climatic Parameters and Their Paleogeographic Significance,” in Problems of the Paleogeography of the Pleistocene of Glacial and Periglacial Regions, Ed. by A. A. Velichko and V. P. Grichuk (Nauka, Moscow, 1981), pp. 211–220 [in Russian].
F. E. Nelson and S. I. Outcalt, “A Computational Method for Prediction and Regionalization of Permafrost,” Arctic. Alp. Res. 19, 279–288 (1987).
P. F. Demchenko, A. A. Velichko, A. V. Eliseev, et al., “Dependence of Permafrost Conditions on Global Warming: Comparison of Models, Scenarios, and Paleoclimatic Reconstructions,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana 38, 165–174 (2002) [Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 38, 143–151 (2002).
T. Zhang, O. W. Frauenfeld, M. C. Serreze, et al., “Spatial and Temporal Variability in Active Layer Thickness over the Russian Arctic Drainage Basin,” J. Geophys. Res. D 110, D16101 (2005).
V. A. Kudryavtsev, Temperature of the Upper Horizons of Permafrost Thickness within the USSR (Akad. Nauk SSSR, Leningrad, 1954) [in Russian].
T. S. Sazonova and V. E. Romanovsky, “A Model for Regional-Scale Estimation of Temporal and Spatial Variability of Active-Layer Thickness and Mean Annual Ground Temperatures,” Permafr. Periglac. Processes, No. 2, 125–140 (2003).
C. Waelbroeck, “Climate-Soil Processes in the Presence of Permafrost: A Systems Modelling Approach,” Ecol. Model. 69, 185–225 (1993).
L. E. Goodrich, “Efficient Numerical Technique for One-Dimensional Thermal Problems with Phase Change,” Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer, No. 5, 160–163 (1978).
E. M. Volodin and V. N. Lykosov, “Parametrization of Heat and Moisture Transfer in the Soil-Vegetation System for Use in Atmospheric General Circulation Models: Formulation and Simulations Based on Local Observational Data,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana 34, 453–465 (1998) [Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 34, 405–416 (1998)].
E. E. Machul’skaya and V. N. Lykosov, “Simulation of the Thermodynamic Response of Permafrost to Seasonal and Interannual Variations in Atmospheric Parameters,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana 38, 20–33 (2002) [Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 38, 15–26 (2002)].
M. Claussen, L. Mysak, A. Weaver, et al., “Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity: Closing the Gap in the Spectrum of Climate System Model,” Clim. Dyn. 18, 579–586 (2002).
V. Petoukhov, M. Claussen, A. Berger, et al., “EMIC Intercomparison Project (EMIP-CO2): Comparative Analysis of EMIC Simulations of Current Climate and Equilibrium and Transient Responses to Atmospheric CO2 Doubling,” Clim. Dyn., No. 4, 363–385 (2005).
M. M. Arzhanov, A. V. Eliseev, P. F. Demchenko, and I. I. Mokhov, “Simulation of Changes in the Thermal and Hydrologic Regimes of Surface Permafrost with the Use of Climatic Data (Reanalysis),” Kriosfera Zemli 11 (4) (2007).
M. M. Arzhanov, A. A. Anisimov, P. F. Demchenko, et al., “Permafrost Models Intercomparison,” Res. Activ. Atmos. Ocean. Model, No. 1220, 04.01–04.02 (2004).
M. M. Arzhanov, “Simulation of the Thermal and Hydrologic Regimes of Permafrost,” in Proc. of 10th All-Russia Conference of Young Scientists on Atmospheric Composition, Climatic Effects, and Atmospheric Electricity (MAKS, Moscow, 2006), p. 12 [in Russian].
Ya. A. Pachepskii, L. B. Pachepskaya, E. V. Mironenko, and A. S. Komarov, Simulation of the Water-Salt Regime of Grounds with the Use of a Computer (Nauka, Moscow, 1976) [in Russian].
A. V. Pavlov, Thermal Physics of Landscapes (Nauka, Novosibirsk, 1979) [in Russian].
A. M. Globus, Physics of Nonisothermal Intrasoil Moisture Transfer (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1983) [in Russian].
G. S. Golitsyn, “To the Theory of Upper-Mantle Convection,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR 234, 552–555 (1977).
V. A. Alexeev, D. J. Nicolsky, V. E. Romanovsky, et al., “An Evaluation of Deep Soil Configurations in the CLM3 for Improved Representation of Permafrost,” Geophys. Rev. Lett. 34, doi: 10.1029/2007GL02536, L09502 (2007).
O. A. Anisimov, “Estimation of the Sensitivity of Permafrost to a Change in the Global Thermal Regime of the Earth’s Surface,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 1, 79–84 (1989).
V. V. Simonov, “Effect of Intraannual Seasonal Connections on the Thermal Regime in Permafrost Regions,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 5, 15–22 (2000).
S. M. Uppala, P. W. Kallberg, A. J. Simmos, et al., “The ERA-40 Re-analysis,” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131, 2961–3012 (2005).
A. V. Pavlov, “Permafrost-Climate Changes in Northern Russia: Observations, Forecasting,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Ser. Geograf., No. 6, 39–50 (2003).
T. Zhang, R. G. Barry, K. Knowles, et al., “Statistics and Characteristics of Permafrost and Ground-Ice Distribution in the Northern Hemisphere,” Polar. Geogr. 23(2), 132–154 (1999).
O. A. Anisimov and M. A. Belolutskaya, “Simulation of the Effect of Anthropogenic Warming on Permafrost: Consideration for the Influence of Vegetation,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 11, 73–82 (2004).
A. V. Pavlov, Yu. B. Skachkov, and N. B. Kakunov, “Relationship between Multiyear Variations in the Depth of Seasonal Ground Thawing and Meteorological Factors,” Kriosfera Zemli 8(4), 3–11 (2004).
M. New, M. Hulme, and P. Jones, “Representing Twentieth-Century Space-Time Climate Variability. Part II: Development of 1901–96 Monthly Grids of Terrestrial Surface Climate,” J. Clim., No. 13, 2217–2238 (2000).
Global Runoff Data Centre, Second Interim Report on the Arctic River Database for Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS), Technical Report No. 12 (FIH, Koblenz, 1966).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Original Russian Text © M.M. Arzhanov, A.V. Eliseev, P.F. Demchenko, I.I. Mokhov, V.Ch. Khon, 2008, published in Izvestiya AN. Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana, 2008, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 86–93.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Arzhanov, M.M., Eliseev, A.V., Demchenko, P.F. et al. Simulation of thermal and hydrological regimes of Siberian river watersheds under permafrost conditions from reanalysis data. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 44, 83–89 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1134/S000143380801009X
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S000143380801009X