Electoral Support of Parties in Eastern Siberia: The Macroregional and Regional Aspects
Relationships of the results of the 2016 State Duma election (the share of voters who supported each of the three main political parties) for the federal subjects of Russia with three indicators have been analyzed. The first indicator are the socio-economic phenomena at the regional level. The second indicator refers to the results of the same election at the level of macroregions to which the respective regions belong. The third indicator includes the socio-economic phenomena at the level of macroregions to which the respective regions belong. Four types of regions were identified for each indicator, based on analyzing these correlations. The three indicators and types are all considered as complementary in predicting the electoral behavior of the region’s population. It is concluded that if in a federal subject of Russia the level of support of a political party is higher than the national average and if the set of attributes favoring voting for a given party is relatively well covered, it is a region of stable support of this party. In the event where in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, a political party received fewer votes than the national average, and in the region the set of attributes of the support of a given party is not sufficiently expressed, it is a region of stably decreased support of this party. If a political party in a federal subject of Russia received more votes than the national average, but has a weak set of support factors, this is a region of potential decrease in support for this party. If a political party in a region has received fewer votes than the national average, but the set of factors supporting this party is relatively strong, it is a region of potential increase in support of this party. It has been established that protest-type electoral attitudes are dominant in Eastern Siberia, which implies a widespread occurrence of the stably decreased support of the party of power (United Russia, UR) and the stably increased support of the main opposition parties (Communist Party of the Russian Federation, CPRF, and Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, LDPR). It is found that all regions of Eastern Siberia show coincidences of the types of electoral predisposition for CPRF — LDPR and UR — LDPR.
KeywordsElection political parties correlation level of support macroregion region
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