Advertisement

Doklady Mathematics

, Volume 98, Issue 2, pp 526–531 | Cite as

Mathematical Models for Calculating the Development Dynamics in the Era of Digital Economy

  • A. A. Akaev
  • V. A. Sadovnichii
Computer Science
  • 1 Downloads

Abstract

Mathematical models for practical calculations of technological progress (total productivity of production factors) and economic growth in the era of widespread digitalization and robotization of national economies, where the main factor of production is technological information, are developed and verified. For this purpose, models using different modes of information production are proposed for the first time. It is shown that the economic effect of the digitalization of an economy will not come immediately, but with a lag of about eight years. For the US economy, forecast calculations show that this will happen in 2022–2026 with total productivity increasing by 1.1 percentage points up to 2.5% per year.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. 1.
    E. Brynjolfsson and S. Adam, Wired for Innovation: How Information Technology Is Reshaping the Economy (MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 2010).Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    T. Bresnahan and M. Trajtenberg, J. Econ. 65 (1), 83–108 (1995).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    E. Brynjolfsson and L. Hitt, Manage. Sci. 42 (4), 541–558 (1996).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    R. Solow, New York Times Books Rev., July 12 (1987).Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    D. Jorgenson and K. Stiroh, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2000), Vol. 1.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    D. Romer, Advanced Macroeconomics (McGraw-Hill Education, New York, 2011).Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    A. A. Akaev and V. A. Sadovnichii, Herald Russ. Acad. Sci. 86 (5), 371–383 (2016).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    A. I. Yablonskii, Mathematical Models in Science Studies (Mysl’, Moscow, 1986) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    G. I. Barenblatt, Scaling (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, Mass., 2003).CrossRefzbMATHGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
  11. 11.
    R. Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near (Viking Books, New York, 2005).Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    B. M. Dolgonosov, Nonlinear Dynamics of Ecological and Hydrological Processes (Librokom, Moscow, 2009) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    H. von Foerster, P. Mora, and L. Amiot, Science 132, 1291–1295 (1960).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    S. P. Kapitsa, Essay on the Theory of Human Population Growth: Demographic Revolution and Information Society (Nikitskii Klub, Moscow, 2008) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    L. E. Varakin, Information-Economic Law (MAS, Moscow, 2006) [in Russian].Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute of Complex System Mathematical ResearchMoscow State UniversityMoscowRussia
  2. 2.Faculty of Mechanics and MathematicsMoscow State UniversityMoscowRussia

Personalised recommendations