An Impact of Atmospheric and Climate Changes on the Energy Potential of Russian Forest Resources
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Biofuels are an important source of energy that currently cover about 10% of the world’s energy demand, including 2% of electricity generation and 2.5% of liquid fuel consumption. In Russia, wood fuel is among the most available and abundant sources of renewable energy. Possible changes in the energy potential of Russia’s forest resources induced by changes in the atmospheric composition and climate are studied. This article presents estimates of global changes in the CO2 concentration and the average annual air temperature across the Russian territory for the period up to 2050 obtained using the climatic model and the carbon cycle model developed at the Moscow Power Engineering Institute. The results of our simulations obtained show that the change in the net primary production of Russian forests caused by the growth in the CO2 content in the atmosphere, the increase of temperature, and the larger amount of precipitation will rinduce an increase of the available wood fuel energy resources by 30% or by more than 9 million tce/year by the middle of the current century.
In this study, we used data of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat, www//gks.ru), the All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information of the Russian Meteorological Service (RIHMI-WDC, www//meteo.ru), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, www//faostat.org), the International Energy Agency (IEA, www.iea.org), the British Petroleum Company (www//bp.org), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, www//noaa.gov).
This work was supported by the Ministry of the Rus-sian Federation for Education and Science (project no. 13.1137.2017) regarding the modeling the climatic changes across the Russian territory, and by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant no. 17-08-00134) regarding the estimating the potential of energy bioresources in Russia.
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