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Economic voting in Europe: Did the crisis matter?

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Comparative European Politics Aims and scope

Abstract

Recent voting behavior literature is concerned with the consequences of the global financial and economic crisis. During 2008–2009, most European countries faced a considerable slowdown in economic growth and an increase in unemployment levels. Theoretically, this would lead us to expect strong economic effects on incumbent support. However, recent academic work suggests that diminishing clarity of responsibility makes it increasingly difficult for voters to attribute blame for economic outcomes, consequently making punitive voting less likely. Has the sanctioning-rewarding mechanism then changed over time? Was economic voting more or less pronounced during the crisis than it was prior to the economic downturn? Analyzing the European Election Studies (EES) data for 12 Western European countries in 1989, 1994, 2004, 2009 and 2014, this paper finds support for neither proposition: there is very little abrupt change in economic effects over time. The statistical relationship between the economy and voting remained remarkably constant and was not subject to short-term fluctuations, even after the most dramatic economic recession in our lifetime. The stability of economic voting is particularly noteworthy considering that levels of voter dissatisfaction with national economic performance skyrocketed in 2009.

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Figure 1

Source: OECD.

Figure 2

Source: EES Voter study from 1989, 1994, 2004, 2009 and 2014 for 12 European countries; author’s calculations.

Figure 3

Source: EES Voter study from 1989, 1994, 2004, 2009 and 2014 for 12 countries; author’s calculations.

Figure 4

Source: EES Voter study from 1989, 1994, 2004, 2009 and 2014 for 12 countries; author’s calculations.

Figure 5

Source: EES Voter study from 1989, 1994, 2004, 2009 and 2014 for 12 countries; OECD; author’s calculations.

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Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Piret Ehin, Kristjan Vassil and Thomas Biegert, as well as three anonymous referees for their insightful, detailed and constructive comments. Large parts of this work were conducted at the University of Tartu and were supported by the Doctoral School of Behavioural, Social and Health Sciences and the Archimedes Foundation.

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  1. Department of Politics, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, UK

    Liisa Talving

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Correspondence to Liisa Talving.

Appendices

Appendix 1

See Table 2.

Table 2 Descriptive statistics
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Appendix 2

See Table 3.

Table 3 Effects of economic evaluations on incumbent support across years
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Appendix 3

See Table 4.

Table 4 Models with alternative dependent variables
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Appendix 4

See Table 5.

Table 5 Models with alternative independent variables
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Talving, L. Economic voting in Europe: Did the crisis matter?. Comp Eur Polit 16, 695–723 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41295-017-0092-z

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