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Emerging IT Risks: Insights from German Banking

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Abstract

How do German banks manage the emerging risks stemming from IT innovations such as cyber risk? With a focus on process, roles and responsibilities, field data from ten banks participating in the 2014 ECB stress test were collected by interviewing IT managers, risk managers and external experts. Current procedures for handling emerging risks in German banks were identified from the interviews and analysed, guided by the extant literature. A clear gap was found between enterprise risk management (ERM) as a general approach to risks threatening firms’ objectives and ERM’s neglect of emerging risks, such as those associated with IT innovations. The findings suggest that ERM should be extended towards the collection and sharing of knowledge to allow for an initial understanding and description of emerging risks, as opposed to the traditional ERM approach involving estimates of impact and probability. For example, as cyber risks emerge from an IT innovation, the focus may need to switch towards reducing uncertainty through knowledge acquisition. Since individual managers seldom possess all relevant knowledge of an IT innovation, various stakeholders may need to be involved to exploit their expertise.

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Notes

  1. Ali et al. (2014); Bhargava (2014); COSO (2017); Roland Berger (2015).

  2. Price and Adams (2015).

  3. Medcraft (2015).

  4. Ruan (2017).

  5. Aven (2016); Feduzi and Runde (2014); Flage and Aven (2015).

  6. Wilson et al. (2010).

  7. Anginer et al. (2014); COSO (2017); RIMS (2010).

  8. COSO (2017).

  9. Kloman (1992, p. 302).

  10. Aven (2012); Jäger (2009).

  11. Arena et al. (2010).

  12. Emblemsvåg (2010).

  13. Mikes (2009).

  14. Beasley et al. (2016); Köhler and Som (2014).

  15. IAA (2008); Jäger (2009); Munich Re (2016).

  16. Smith and Fischbacher (2009).

  17. IAA (2008).

  18. Beasley et al. (2016); Diaz-Rainey et al. (2015); RBS (2014).

  19. Diaz-Rainey et al. (2015); Häckel et al. (2015).

  20. Aven (2016); Flage and Aven (2015).

  21. Hayne and Free (2014).

  22. Paape and Speklé (2012).

  23. Babb (2013).

  24. Ridley et al. (2008).

  25. Jovanovi and Löscher (2013).

  26. García-Granero et al. (2015).

  27. e.g., Bowers and Khorakian (2014); Köhler and Som (2014); Maynard (2015); Praeg (2014).

  28. Gollier et al. (2013); Mikes (2011); Power (2009); Zhao et al. (2015).

  29. Krane et al. (2014).

  30. Perminova et al. (2008).

  31. Aven (2010a); Bjerga and Aven (2015).

  32. Feduzi and Runde (2014).

  33. Aven (2010b).

  34. Aven (2010a); Bromiley and Rau (2014); March and Shapira (1987).

  35. Klüppelberg et al. (2014).

  36. Gollier et al. (2013).

  37. Bromiley and Rau (2014).

  38. Dombret (2015); Maynard (2015).

  39. Mikes (2009); Paape and Speklé (2012).

  40. Beasley et al. (2015).

  41. Mikes and Kaplan (2015).

  42. Keith (2014).

  43. Liebenberg and Hoyt (2003).

  44. EBA (2014).

  45. Bessis (2010).

  46. Acharya et al. (2014).

  47. Deutsche Bundesbank (2014b).

  48. Gioia et al. (2013).

  49. Jacks and Palvia (2014).

  50. Davis and Eisenhardt (2011).

  51. Beasley et al. (2015); COSO (2004); Deutsche Bundesbank (2014a); FFSA (2014); IRGC (2011); Kleffner et al. (2003); Teece (2012); Wilson et al. (2010).

  52. Graebner and Eisenhardt (2004).

  53. Wu and Olson (2008).

  54. Allan et al. (2011).

  55. Allan et al. (2011, p. 189).

  56. COSO (2004).

  57. Khoo (2012).

  58. Christiansen and Thrane (2014).

  59. Power (2004a).

  60. Taylor et al. (2012).

  61. O'Connor et al. (2008).

  62. IRCG (2011).

  63. Aven (2012).

  64. RIMS (2010).

  65. COSO (2004); Moeller (2007).

  66. Conforti et al. (2013).

  67. Yeo (1995).

  68. Bromiley and Rau (2014).

  69. March and Shapira (1987).

  70. Bjerga and Aven (2015).

  71. Kasperson et al. (1988).

  72. Perminova et al. (2008); Renn et al. (2011).

  73. Häckel et al. (2015).

  74. White (1995).

  75. Blockley (2013).

  76. BCBS (2014).

  77. Beasley et al. (2015); Subramaniam et al. (2015).

  78. Dombret (2015).

  79. Hall et al. (2015).

  80. Aven (2016).

  81. Flage and Aven (2015).

  82. Power (2004b).

  83. Power (2004b); Rodriguez and Edwards (2014).

  84. e.g., Rosati et al. (2017).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Plymouth Business School, University of Plymouth, Drakes Circus, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK

    Simon Ashby

  2. Adam Smith Business School, Glasgow University, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK

    Trevor Buck

  3. Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, UK

    Stephanie Nöth-Zahn

  4. Am Stadtpark 20, 81243, Munich, Germany

    Thomas Peisl

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Appendix: Interview guide

Appendix: Interview guide

The appendix includes the semi-structured interview guide to provide a better understanding of the data from the interviews.

General question: What key meanings are currently attached to emerging risks from IT innovations within the German banking sector?

  1. 1.1

    How would you define emerging risks from IT innovations?

    1. 1.1.1

      Does your organisation have a common definition?

  2. 1.2

    Can you give me an example of an emerging risk from IT innovation that your organisation is currently facing?

General question: How does uncertainty influence the ERM of emerging risks from IT innovations?

  1. 2.1

    What roles does uncertainty play in the management of emerging risks from IT innovations?

    1. 2.1.1

      Do you have an example where uncertainty had an impact on the management of emerging risks from IT innovations?

  2. 2.2

    Do you see uncertainty as an advantage or disadvantage in the management of emerging risks from IT innovations?

    1. 2.2.1

      Can you please elaborate why you see it as an advantage/disadvantage?

General question: Who should be involved in the ERM of emerging risks from IT innovations?

  1. 3.1

    Who in your organisation is involved in the management of emerging risks from IT innovations?

  2. 3.2

    Is this a static group of people or can the people involved vary?

    1. 3.2.1

      If the groups vary, what factors cause variations?

    2. 3.2.2

      Should further people/departments be involved in the management of emerging risks?

    3. 3.2.3

      Who has the overall responsibility for the management of emerging risks?

General question: Which ERM components are critical to the ERM of emerging risks from IT innovations?

  1. 4.1

    Does your organisation manage emerging risks from IT innovations?

    1. 4.1.1

      If it is managed, can you please explain in detail how?

  2. 4.2

    Does your organisation manage emerging risks per department or throughout the entire organisation?

  3. 4.3

    Which risk management aspects and components do you find especially important in the management of emerging risks?

    1. 4.3.1

      Why do you find them important?

    2. 4.3.2

      Is your view shared among your organisation members?

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Ashby, S., Buck, T., Nöth-Zahn, S. et al. Emerging IT Risks: Insights from German Banking. Geneva Pap Risk Insur Issues Pract 43, 180–207 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41288-018-0081-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41288-018-0081-8

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