Advertisement

The dispersion of crime concentration during a period of crime increase

  • Spencer P. ChaineyEmail author
  • Joana Monteiro
Original Article

Abstract

Extensive empirical evidence shows that crime concentrates in place, with these findings being important for helping to target police resources. Little is known, however, about whether these crime concentration areas are where crime increases the most during a period of crime increase. Using data from the seven largest cities in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, we show that during a period of crime increase, the locations most responsible for the increases were the micro-places where crime previously concentrated. We argue that the increases in crime in areas of crime concentration were mainly due to these places offering stable favorable conditions for crime. The study introduces a simple index—the Crime Concentration Dispersion Index—which helps police agencies determine where to target resources during a period of crime increase and offers results that provide an important Latin American urban perspective to the literature on crime concentration.

Keywords

Crime concentration Hot spot policing Crime concentration dispersion index Robbery Latin America 

Notes

References

  1. Andresen, M.A. 2009. An area-based nonparametric spatial point pattern test: The test, its applications, and the future. Methodological Innovations 9: 1–11.Google Scholar
  2. Andresen, M.A., and M. Malleson. 2011. Testing the stability of crime patterns: implications for theory and policy. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 48: 58–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bernasco, W., and W. Steenbeek. 2017. More places than crimes: Implications for evaluating the law of crime concentration at place. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 33 (3): 451–467.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Braga, A.A., D.M. Hureau, and A.V. Papachristos. 2010. The concentration and stability of gun violence at micro places in Boston, 1980–2008. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 26: 33–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Braga, A.A., D.M. Hureau, and A.V. Papachristos. 2011. The relevance of micro places to citywide robbery trends: A longitudinal analysis of robbery incidents at street corners and block faces in Boston. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 48: 7–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Braga, A.A., M.A. Andresen, and B. Lawton. 2017. The law of crime concentration at places: Editors’ Introduction. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 33 (3): 421–426.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Braga, A.A., and D. Weisburd. 2012. Policing problem places: Crime hot spots and effective prevention. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  8. Chainey, S.P., and J.H. Ratcliffe. 2005. GIS and crime mapping. London: Wiley.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Chainey, S.P., L. Tompson, and S. Uhlig. 2008. The utility of hotspot mapping for predicting spatial patterns of crime. Security Journal 21: 1–2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Curman, A.S., M.A. Andresen, and P.J. Brantingham. 2014. Crime and place: A longitudinal examination of street segment patterns in Vancouver, BC. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 31 (1): 127–147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Dammert, L., and M. Malone. 2006. Does it take a village? Policing strategies and fear of crime in Latin America. Latin American Politics and Society 48 (4): 27–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Gill, C., A. Wooditch, and D. Weisburd. 2017. Testing the ‘law of crime concentration at place’ in a suburban setting: Implications for research and practice. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 33: 421–426.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Groff, E.R., D. Weisburd, and N. Morris. 2008. Where the action is at places: Examining spatio-temporal patterns of juvenile crime at places using trajectory analysis and GIS. In Putting crime in it’s place: Units of analysis in spatial crime research, ed. D. Weisburd, W. Bernasco, and G. Bruinsma. New York: Springer.Google Scholar
  14. Guerry, A.M. 1833. Essai sur la statistique morale de la France: precede d’un rapport a l’Academie de sciences. Paris: Chez Crochard.Google Scholar
  15. Inter-American Development Bank. 2016. Violent crime in Latin American cities. Discussion paper number IDB-DP-474. Washington, D.C.: IDB. Accessed on 4 October 2017 https://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/7821.
  16. Jaitman, L., and N. Ajzenman. 2016. Crime concentration and hot spot dynamics in Latin America. Inter-American Development Bank: Washington, D.C.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Lee, Y., J.E. Eck, O. SooHyn, and N. Martinez. 2017. How concentrated is crime at places? A systematic review from 1970 to 2015. Crime Science 6 (6): 1–16.Google Scholar
  18. Mejía, D., D. Ortega, and K. Ortiz. 2015. Un análisis de la criminalidad urbana en Colombia. Documento de Trabajo CAF: Caracas, Venezuela.Google Scholar
  19. de Melo, S.N., L.F. Matias, and M.A. Andresen. 2015. Crime concentrations and similarities in spatial crime patterns in a Brazilian context. Applied Geography 62: 314–324.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Mendes de Miranda, A.P., and M. Ferreira. 2008. An analytical technique for addressing geographical referencing difficulties and monitoring crimes in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In Crime mapping case studies: Practice and research, ed. S. Chainey and L. Tompson. Chichester: Wiley.Google Scholar
  21. Openshaw, S. 1984. The modifiable areal unit problem, concepts and techniques in modern geography 38. Norwich: Geobooks.Google Scholar
  22. Pereira, D.V.S., C.M.M. Mota, and M.A. Andresen. 2016. The homicide drop in Recife, Brazil: A study of crime concentrations and spatial patterns. Homicide Studies 21 (1): 21–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Ratcliffe, J.H. 2004. Geocoding crime and a first estimate of a minimum acceptable hit rate. International Journal of Geographic Information Science 18 (1): 61–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Ratcliffe, J.H. 2010. The spatial dependency of crime increase dispersion. Security Journal 23: 18–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Sherman, L.W., P.R. Gartin, and M.E. Buerger. 1989. Hot spots of predatory crime: Routine activities and the criminology of place. Criminology 27: 27–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Smith, W.R., S.G. Frazee, and E.L. Davison. 2000. Furthering the integration of routine activity and social disorganization theories: Small units of analysis and the study of street robbery as a diffusion process. Criminology 38 (2): 489–524.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Steenbeck, W., and D. Weisburd. 2016. Where the action is in crime? An examination of variability of crime across different spatial units in The Hague, 2001–2009. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 32 (3): 449–469.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. UNODC. 2017. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime Statistics Online https://data.unodc.org/ (Accessed 10 October 2017).
  29. Weisburd, D. 2015. The law of crime concentration and the criminology of place. Criminology 53: 133–157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Weisburd, D., S. Bushway, C. Lum, and S. Yang. 2004. Trajectories of crime at places: A longitudinal study of street segments in the city of Seattle. Criminology 42: 283–322.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Weisburd, D., N. Morris, and E.R. Groff. 2009. Hot spots of juvenile crime: A longitudinal study of street segments in Seattle. Washington. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 25 (4): 443–467.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Weisburd, D., E.R. Groff, and S. Yang. 2012. The criminology of place: Street segments and our understanding of the crime problem. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Weisburd, D., and C.W. Telep. 2014. Hot spots policing: What we know and what we need to know. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 30 (2): 200–220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Limited 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Security and Crime ScienceUniversity College LondonLondonEngland, UK
  2. 2.Instituto de Segurança PúblicaRio de JaneiroBrazil

Personalised recommendations