Risk analysis of marine cargoes and major port disruptions
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As an interface between sea and land, ports are exposed to a wide range of natural hazards such as cyclones, floods and tsunami. At the same time, marine cargoes are growing both in terms of volume and value. Besides their exposure to various hazards during the sea trip, their concentration in ports increases the risk to the cargo itself as well as to the port. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, our study proposes a framework for catastrophe risk analysis of marine cargoes and ports by breaking-down the terminal operation process. This allows a more in-depth analysis by investigating the different parts of that process. Second, the study formulates a State Transition model for the simulation of scenarios. This is an integrated and robust risk model, to analyse exposure of marine cargoes and ports to natural hazards. The port of Laem Chabang is chosen as an example for demonstrating the risk simulation analysis. Findings show that losses can be in the form of both physical loss/damage and interruption loss with extensive cargo accumulation due to port disruptions.
KeywordsMaritime risk Catastrophe risk Marine cargo Port disruption Terminal operation Natural hazard
We wish to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions. This research is supported by the Singapore Maritime Institute under the SMI Simulation and Modelling R&D Programme (project SMI-2014-MA-03). We also wish to acknowledge the Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management at Nanyang Technological University as the collaborating institute.
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