A market spill–recapture unconstraining model for estimating airline true demand

  • Tomasz Drabas
  • Cheng-Lung Wu
Research Article


The true demand of airline tickets is defined as the number of passengers that would book a particular flight if there was no capacity constraint. Estimating the true demand plays a crucial role in airline revenue management and pricing. In this paper, we developed a true demand unconstraining model that incorporated passenger choice models, allowing us to simultaneously estimate true demand for all booking classes in a market. Simulated booking data were generated to inform the true demand that is unavailable in the real-world setting. Numerical experiments showed that our model could outperform a benchmarking model by up to 10%.


Demand unconstraining model True demand Demand spill Demand recapture Cross-nested logit model Multinomial logit model 



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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Limited 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of AviationUNSW SydneySydneyAustralia

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