Pharmacy World and Science

, Volume 19, Issue 4, pp 182–185 | Cite as

Scenario analysis of the future of clinical pharmacy.

  • Hubert Leufkens
  • Yechiel Hekster
  • Steve Hudson


The role of clinical pharmacy in the health care system is changing rapidly. This change is almost universal among different countries and is related to developments in medical technology, health economics, informatics, socio‐economic status, and professional relations.Transitions to new systems of clinical pharmacy are difficult to anticipate. Even with well defined targets, it remains uncertain what the future of clinical pharmacy will bring us. The construction of plausible scenarios may help us better in preparing for the 'new world' ahead.

At the annual congresses of ESCP in Prague 1995 (24th) and Lisbon 1996 (25th), a number of scenario analysis workshops with respect to the future of clinical pharmacy were organized. This paper gives a report of the results of these scenario sessions and reflects on the implications for future policy making. After we identified the driving forces behind the future of clinical pharmacy, various sets of assumptions were made and from them scenarios were constructed which are plausible: they 'could' happen. This analysis provided a logical framework in which we ultimately depicted three alternating stories of the future of clinical pharmacy, named 'CLERK', 'CONTROLLER' and 'CARE MANAGER'. These scenarios are intended to help clinical pharmasists to break free of familiar mental maps and to stimulate creative thinking on the future.

Clinical pharmacy Scenario analysis Future Policy making Professions 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    European Society of Clinical Pharmacy. The clinical pharmacist: education document. Barcelona, 1983.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Breimer DD, ed. Roles and responsibilities of the pharmacists in primary health care. Proceedings of the 42nd international congress of FIP, Copenhagen 1982. The Hague, 1983.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Lunde I, Dukes MNG. The role and functions of the community and hospital pharmacist in the health care systems in Europe. WHO Collaborating Centre for Clinical Pharmacology and Drug Policy Science, University of Groningen, 1989.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Pharmacy, a report to the Nuffield Foundation. London: The Nuffield Foundation, 1986.Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Bonal J, Burden M, Delporte JP, eds. The future of clinical pharmacy in Europe. Noordwijk: European Society of Clinical Pharmacy, 1993.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Waldo DR, Sonnefeld ST, Lemieux JA, McKusick DR. Health spending through 2030: Three Scenarios. Health Affair 1991; 231–42.Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Anonymous. Hard to swallow-the cost of drugs. Economist 1992; April 18th:87.Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Dukes MNG. Pharmaceuticals: take another look. Pharm Weekbl 1985; 120: 532–8.Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Reinhardt UE, Pinto FJ, eds. New perspectives in health care economics. MEDIQ Ltd, London 1991.Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    UK Clinical Pharmacy Association Statement on Pharmaceutical Care. Pharmaceutical Journal 1996; 256: 345–6.Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    Schwartz P. The art of the long view. Planning for the future in an uncertain world. New York: Bantam Books, 1991.Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Leufkens H, Haaijer-Ruskamp F, Bakker A, Dukes G. Scenario analysis of the future of medicines. Br Med J 1994; 309: 1136–40.Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    McAllister JC 3rd. Collaborating with re-engineering consultants: maintaining resources for the future. Am J Health Syst Pharm 1995; 52(23): 2676–80.Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Keys PW, Goetz CM, Keys PA, Sterchele JA, Snedden TM, Livengood BH. Computer-guided academic detailing as part of a drug benefit program. Am J Health Syst Pharm 1995; 2199–203.Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Talley CR. Outsourcing drug distribution. Am J Health-Syst Pharm 1997; 54:37.Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    American College of Clinical Pharmacy. Rewards and advancements for clinical pharmacy practitioners. Pharmacotherapy 1995 Jan-Feb;15(1): 99–105.Google Scholar
  17. 17.
    Birenbaum A. Reprofessionalization in pharmacy. Soc Sci Med 1982; 16: 871–8.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997

Authors and Affiliations

  • Hubert Leufkens
    • 1
  • Yechiel Hekster
    • 1
  • Steve Hudson
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Pharmacoepidemiology & PharmacotherapyUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
  2. 2.Department of Pharmaceutical SciencesUniversity of StrathclydeGlasgowUnited Kingdom

Personalised recommendations