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Using Drought Indices to Model the Statistical Relationships Between Meteorological and Agricultural Drought in Raya and Its Environs, Northern Ethiopia

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Abstract

The aim of this study was to model the relationship between Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI), and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3-month timescale in Raya and its environs, Northern Ethiopia. This study answered how NDVI and LST, VCI and TCI, SPI and VHI are related. It also explained better drought indices for meteorological and agricultural drought monitoring. MOD11A2 LST Terra, eMODIS NDVI, and monthly rainfall data of the tropical applications of meteorology using satellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) were used. The data were analyzed using a simple linear regression model. The results revealed that the mean LST was high (i.e., between 39.6 and 41.29 °C), while NDVI was poor and unhealthy (i.e., below 0.27) in the lowland area due to unfavorable moisture condition than the mid and highland areas. The regression result indicated that NDVI and LST have a relatively strong negative and significant relationship (R2/P = 0.40/0.01 to R2/P = 0.62/0.00) in all districts of the study area. This study also reported that there is a positive and significant relationship between VCI and TCI (R2/P = 0.38/0.02 to R2/P = 0.63/0.00) in all districts of the study area. Furthermore, this study found that the relationship between SPI and VHI is positive and significant (R2/P = 0.36/0.02 to R2/P = 0.60/0.00) in all districts of the study area. The SPI and VHI indices are suitable for monitoring the incidence of meteorological and agricultural drought. This study may help to improve the understanding of both meteorological and agricultural drought indices relationships.

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Source: Gidey et al. (2017)

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Acknowledgements

The main author is thankful for the Ph.D. scholarship offered by the TreccAfrica II project. The financial support of Mekelle University, and OSF-ACCAI project of Mekelle University for conducting the research was highly commendable. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), United States Geological Survey (USGS), Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET), and National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia are highly appreciated for the provision of all necessary data. We are grateful for the constructive feedback of the four anonymous reviewers and the editor.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Science, University of Botswana, Private Bag UB 0704, Gaborone, Botswana

    Eskinder Gidey, Oagile Dikinya, Reuben Sebego & Eagilwe Segosebe

  2. Land Resource Management and Environmental Protection, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Eskinder Gidey & Amanuel Zenebe

  3. Institute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Eskinder Gidey & Amanuel Zenebe

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  1. Eskinder Gidey
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  2. Oagile Dikinya
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  3. Reuben Sebego
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  4. Eagilwe Segosebe
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  5. Amanuel Zenebe
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Correspondence to Eskinder Gidey.

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Gidey, E., Dikinya, O., Sebego, R. et al. Using Drought Indices to Model the Statistical Relationships Between Meteorological and Agricultural Drought in Raya and Its Environs, Northern Ethiopia. Earth Syst Environ 2, 265–279 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-018-0055-9

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