Assessment of Circulation Indices Affecting Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, in Addition to ENSO and Equinoo
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Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is a crucial factor affecting the economy of the country. Prediction of ISMR is crucial for formulating strategies of agriculture and its planning and for better management of water resources of the country. Thus, in the present study, significant lagged circulation indices affecting rainfall of months of ISMR are determined by application of linear correlation, removal of multi-collinearity present among significant lagged circulation indices, and formulation of monthly composite index (MCI). Four models are formed for assessment of hydro-climatic teleconnections between rainfall of months of ISMR and different lagged circulation indices, each having model development phase and testing phase. Four models are having model development phase periods 1950–1999, 1950–1994, 1950–1989, and 1950–1984. The MCIs derived for the different months of ISMR for all four models are used for prediction of rainfall for the period of 2000–2014, which is a common testing period for all the four models. From the study, it is observed that significant lagged circulation indices used in development of MCIs for rainfall of each month of ISMR are changing with respect to time periods, having some common indices and some uncommon indices. Also, in the present study, circulation indices in addition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (Equinoo) which are affecting rainfall of each month of ISMR significantly are determined for better prediction of ISMR.
KeywordsHydro-climatic teleconnection Circulation indices Removal of multi-collinearity Monthly composite index
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Conflict of Interest
The paper has used data and information from various sources which are properly acknowledged in the references and text. The paper has no conflict of interest with any published sources as per the knowledge of the authors.
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