Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Modelling Climate-Change Impact on the Spatial Distribution of Garra Rufa (Heckel, 1843) (Teleostei: Cyprinidae)

  • Research Paper
  • Published:
Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions A: Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate change has been recognized as one of the biggest threats to biodiversity conservation. Therefore, predicting and quantifying the impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be useful for its conservation and management. In this regard, we forecasted climate-change effects on one of the common fish species in catches in south-western Iran, i.e. Garra rufa by using species distribution modelling tools. Seven environmental variables (i.e. basin, stream slope, bank-full width, elevation, mean air temperature, air temperature range, and annual precipitation) were used for modelling by BioMOD2 package in R software. Moreover, six modelling techniques (i.e. GLM, GAM, GBM, MARS, ANN, and RF) were applied and finally summarized by the ensemble model in order to reduce the uncertainty. According to true skill statistic, the average accuracy of the modelling was excellent (0.91). This species showed both expansion (gain) and reduction (loss) under different climate-change scenarios [optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5)] in 2050 and 2080. Consequently, in order to protect this species, it is necessary for managers to implement appropriate measures for conservation of future predicted potential suitable areas as well as areas where this species is likely disappeared.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

Availability of data and material

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, upon reasonable request.

Code availability

All codes for data analysis associated with the current submission are available at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/biomod2/index.html.

References

  • Abbaspour KC, Faramarzi M, Ghasemi SS, Yang H (2009) Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran. Water Resour Res 45(10):W10434

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abdoli A (2000) The inland water fishes of Iran. Iranian Museum of Nature and Wildlife, Tehran, Iran

    Google Scholar 

  • Amiri MJ, Eslamian SS (2010) Investigation of climate change in Iran. J Environ Sci Technol 3(4):208–216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Araujo M, New M (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol Evol 22(1):42–47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Araújo MB, Thuiller W, Pearson RG (2006) Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. J Biogeogr 33(10):1712–1728

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bond N, Thomson J, Reich P, Stein J (2011) Using species distribution models to infer potential climate change-induced range shifts of freshwater fish in south-eastern Australia. Mar Freshw Res 62(9):1043–1061

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buisson L, Grenouillet G (2009) Contrasted impacts of climate change on stream fish assemblages along an environmental gradient. Divers Distrib 15(4):613–626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buisson L, Thuiller W, Lek S, Lim PUY, Grenouillet G (2008) Climate change hastens the turnover of stream fish assemblages. Glob Change Biol 14(10):2232–2248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cardinale BJ, Palmer MA, Collins SL (2002) Species diversity enhances ecosystem functioning through interspecific facilitation. Nature 415(6870):426–429

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carosi A, Padula R, Ghetti L, Lorenzoni M (2019) Endemic freshwater fish range shifts related to global climate changes: a long-term study provides some observational evidence for the Mediterranean Area. Water 11(11):2349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chu C, Mandrak NE, Minns CK (2005) Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions of several common and rare freshwater fishes in Canada. Divers Distrib 11(4):299–310

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coad BW (2020) Freshwater fishes of Iran. http://www.briancoad.com/Contents.htm. Accessed 22 July 2020

  • Dastorani MT, Poormohammadi S (2016) Mapping of climatic parameters under climate change impacts in Iran. Hydrol Sci J 61(14):2552–2566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elith JH, Graham CP, Anderson R, Dudík M, Ferrier S, Guisan A et al (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29(2):129–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Esmaeili HR, Sayyadzadeh G, Eagderi S, Abbasi K (2018) Checklist of freshwater fishes of Iran. FishTaxa 3(3):1–95

    Google Scholar 

  • Filipe AF, Markovic D, Pletterbauer F, Tisseuil C, De Wever A, Schmutz S et al (2013) Forecasting fish distribution along stream networks: Brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Europe. Divers Distrib 19(8):1059–1071

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heikkinen RK, Luoto M, Araújo MB, Virkkala R, Thuiller W, Sykes MT (2006) Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change. Prog Phys Geogr 30(6):751–777

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL (2007) WorldClim version 1.4. Museum of vertebrate zoology, University of California

  • Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25(15):1965–1978

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jouladeh-Roudbar A, Ghanavi HR, Doadrio I (2020) Ichthyofauna from Iranian freshwater: annotated checklist diagnosis taxonomy distribution and conservation assessment. Zool Stud 59(21):1–303

    Google Scholar 

  • Jouladeh-Roudbar A, Vatandoust S, Eagderi S, Jafari-Kenari S, Mousavi-Sabet H (2015) Freshwater fishes of Iran: an updated checklist. Aquac Aquar Conserv Legis 8(6):855–909

    Google Scholar 

  • Kafash A, Ashrafi S, Ohler A, Yousefi M, Malakoutikhah S, Koehler G, Schmidt BR (2018) Climate change produces winners and losers: differential responses of amphibians in mountain forests of the Near East. Glob Ecol Conservn 16:e00471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobo JM, Jiménez-Valverde A, Real R (2008) AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 17(2):145–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loreau M, Naeem S, Inchausti P, Bengtsson J, Grime JP, Hector A et al (2001) Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: current knowledge and future challenges. Science 294(5543):804–808

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maloney KO, Weller DE, Michaelson DE, Ciccotto PJ (2013) Species distribution models of freshwater stream fishes in Maryland and their implications for management. Environ Model Assess 18(1):1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Melcher A, Schmutz S, Haidvogl G, Moder K (2007) Spatially based methods to assess the ecological status of European fish assemblage types. Fish Manag Ecol 14(6):453–463

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mostafavi H, Kambouzia J (2019) Impact of climate change on the distribution of brown trout Salmo trutta Linnaeus 1758 (Teleostei: Salmonidae) using ensemble modelling approach in Iran. Iran J Ichthyol 6(1):73–81

    Google Scholar 

  • Mostafavi H, Kordjazi Z, Valavi R, Shafizadeh-Moghadam H, Kambouzia J, Infante DM (2019a) Ensemble modelling of sensitive stream fish species distributions in Iran: expanding knowledge to aid species conservation. Am Fish Soc Symp 90:441–462

    Google Scholar 

  • Mostafavi H, Teimori A, Schinegger R, Schmutz S (2019b) A new fish based multi-metric assessment index for cold-water streams of the southern Caspian Sea Basin in Iran. Environ Biol Fishes 102(4):645–662

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mostafavi H, Rashidian Doliskani M, Valavi R (2018) Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of Kura bleak (Alburnus filippii Kessler 1877) on the Iranian scale. J Appl Ichthyol Res 6(4):1–12

    Google Scholar 

  • Mostafavi H, Schinegger R, Melcher A, Moder K, Mielach C, Schmutz S (2015) A new fish-based multi-metric assessment index for cyprinid streams in the Iranian Caspian Sea Basin. Limnologica 51:37–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mostafavi H, Pletterbauer F, Coad BW, Mahini AS, Schinegger R, Unfer G et al (2014) Predicting presence and absence of trout (Salmo trutta) in Iran. Limnologica 46:1–8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Muths E, Chambert T, Schmidt BR, Miller DAW, Hossack BR, Joly P et al (2017) Heterogeneous responses of temperate-zone amphibian populations to climate change complicates conservation planning. Sci Rep 7(1):1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oberdorff T, Pont D, Hugueny B, Chessel D (2001) A probabilistic model characterizing fish assemblages of French rivers: a framework for environmental assessment. Freshw Biol 46(3):399–415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmer MA, Covich AP, Lake SAM, Biro P, Brooks JJ, Cole J et al (2000) Linkages between aquatic sediment biota and life above sediments as potential drivers of biodiversity and ecological processes: a disruption or intensification of the direct and indirect chemical physical or biological interactions between aquatic sediment biota and biota living above the sediments may accelerate biodiversity loss and contribute to the degradation of aquatic and riparian habitats. Bioscience 50(12):1062–1075

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pont D, Hugueny B, Oberdorff T (2005) Modelling habitat requirement of European fishes: do species have similar responses to local and regional environmental constraints? Can J Fish Aquat Sci 62(1):163–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahimi J, Malekian A, Khalili A (2019) Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge. Theoret Appl Climatol 135(1–2):545–564

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reid WV (2005) Millennium ecosystem assessment. Island Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Schinegger R, Trautwein C, Schmutz S (2013) Pressure-specific and multiple pressure response of fish assemblages in European running waters. Limnologica 43(5):348–361

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schinegger R, Trautwein C, Melcher A, Schmutz S (2012) Multiple human pressures and their spatial patterns in european running waters. Water Environ J 26(2):261–273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmutz S, Cowx IG, Haidvogl G, Pont D (2007) Fish-based methods for assessing European running waters: a synthesis. Fish Manag Ecol 14(6):369–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmutz S, Kaufmann M, Vogel B, Jungwirth M, Muhar S (2000) A multi-level concept for fish-based river-type-specific assessment of ecological integrity. Hydrobiologia 422:279–289

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simpson SD, Blanchard JL, Genner MG (2013) Impacts of climate change on fish. MCCIP Sci Rev 2013:113–124

    Google Scholar 

  • Thuiller W, Georges D, Engler R, Breiner F (2016) biomod2: ensemble platform for species distribution modeling. R package version 3.3-7. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=biomod2. Accessed 24 Sept 2020

  • Thuiller W (2003) BIOMOD–optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Glob Change Biol 9(10):1353–1362

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vescovi L, Berteaux DB, Blois Sde (2009) Freshwater biodiversity versus anthropogenic climate change: the United Nations World Water Development Report–N° 3–2009. UNESCO.

  • WMO (2019) WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018 (No, WMO-No.1233). World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)

  • Yousefi M, Jouladeh-Roudbar A, Kafash A (2020) Using endemic freshwater fishes as proxies of their ecosystems to identify high priority rivers for conservation under climate change. Ecol Ind 112:106137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yousefi M, Kafash A, Valizadegan N, Ilanloo SS, Rajabizadeh M, Malekoutikhah S et al (2019) Climate change is a major problem for biodiversity conservation: a systematic review of recent studies in Iran. Contemp Probl Ecol 12(4):394–403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yousefi M, Ahmadi M, Nourani E, Rezaei A, Kafash A, Khani A et al (2017) Habitat suitability and impacts of climate change on the distribution of wintering population of Asian Houbara bustard chlamydotis macqueenii in Iran. Bird Conserv Int 27(2):294–304

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yousefi M, Ahmadi M, Nourani E, Behrooz R, Rajabizadeh M, Geniez P, Kaboli M (2015) Upward altitudinal shifts in habitat suitability of mountain vipers since the last glacial maximum. PLoS ONE 10(9):e01

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Amena Dashtbozorgi and Babak Mirbagheri, who all provided insight and expertise that greatly assisted the research.

Funding

No funding was received for conducting this study.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran Province, Tehran, District 1, Daneshjou Boulevard, 19839 69411, Tehran, Iran

    Toktam Makki & Hossein Mostafavi

  2. Remote Sensing and GIS Center, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

    Aliakbar Matkan & Hossein Aghighi

Authors
  1. Toktam Makki
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Hossein Mostafavi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Aliakbar Matkan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Hossein Aghighi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

The first author (Toktam Makki) is a Ph.D. student and all mentioned authors in the manuscript are her advisory team for her Ph.D. thesis. Actually, Dr. Hossein Mostafavi is her supervisor; Dr. AliAkbar Matkan and Dr. Hossein Aghighi are co-supervisors.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hossein Mostafavi.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.

Ethics approval

All applicable international, national, and/or institutional guidelines for the care and use of animals were followed. Our main guidelines is?

Human and animal rights

This article does not contain any studies involving human participants performed by any of the authors.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Makki, T., Mostafavi, H., Matkan, A. et al. Modelling Climate-Change Impact on the Spatial Distribution of Garra Rufa (Heckel, 1843) (Teleostei: Cyprinidae). Iran J Sci Technol Trans Sci 45, 795–804 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40995-021-01088-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40995-021-01088-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation