Modelling Climate-Change Impact on the Spatial Distribution of Garra Rufa (Heckel, 1843) (Teleostei: Cyprinidae)

Abstract

Climate change has been recognized as one of the biggest threats to biodiversity conservation. Therefore, predicting and quantifying the impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be useful for its conservation and management. In this regard, we forecasted climate-change effects on one of the common fish species in catches in south-western Iran, i.e. Garra rufa by using species distribution modelling tools. Seven environmental variables (i.e. basin, stream slope, bank-full width, elevation, mean air temperature, air temperature range, and annual precipitation) were used for modelling by BioMOD2 package in R software. Moreover, six modelling techniques (i.e. GLM, GAM, GBM, MARS, ANN, and RF) were applied and finally summarized by the ensemble model in order to reduce the uncertainty. According to true skill statistic, the average accuracy of the modelling was excellent (0.91). This species showed both expansion (gain) and reduction (loss) under different climate-change scenarios [optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5)] in 2050 and 2080. Consequently, in order to protect this species, it is necessary for managers to implement appropriate measures for conservation of future predicted potential suitable areas as well as areas where this species is likely disappeared.

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Availability of data and material

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, upon reasonable request.

Code availability

All codes for data analysis associated with the current submission are available at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/biomod2/index.html.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Amena Dashtbozorgi and Babak Mirbagheri, who all provided insight and expertise that greatly assisted the research.

Funding

No funding was received for conducting this study.

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Contributions

The first author (Toktam Makki) is a Ph.D. student and all mentioned authors in the manuscript are her advisory team for her Ph.D. thesis. Actually, Dr. Hossein Mostafavi is her supervisor; Dr. AliAkbar Matkan and Dr. Hossein Aghighi are co-supervisors.

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Correspondence to Hossein Mostafavi.

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All applicable international, national, and/or institutional guidelines for the care and use of animals were followed. Our main guidelines is?

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Makki, T., Mostafavi, H., Matkan, A. et al. Modelling Climate-Change Impact on the Spatial Distribution of Garra Rufa (Heckel, 1843) (Teleostei: Cyprinidae). Iran J Sci Technol Trans Sci 45, 795–804 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40995-021-01088-2

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Keywords

  • Cypriniformes
  • Ecological niche modelling
  • Spatial distribution
  • Conservation
  • Iran